The approaching snap election and what it means for Brexit
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United Kingdom
- On 8 June the British people will go back to the polls for a snap general election. Our base-case scenario is that the Conservatives will extend their parliamentary majority, as suggested by the majority of polls.
- However, the slump in the Conservatives’ lead in voting intentions over the past two weeks suggests that the election’s result should not be taken as a foregone conclusion.
- Theresa May’s hope to strengthen her room for manoeuvre in the Brexit negotiations and secure a smooth path to a hard Brexit is far from certain, even in the event of a large Conservative win. This will depend on the stance of the incoming Conservative members of parliament (MPs) towards Brexit, which is not clear at this stage.