Merkel 4.0: What political changes can we expect?
Prospects
- The opinion polls leave no doubt about the CDU/CSU taking the first place in the elections on 24 September. Unsurprisingly, Angela Merkel is well out in front on voting intentions but is unlikely to win an outright majority of seats in the Bundestag. She will therefore have to hold talks to form a coalition, the outcome of which is wide open. The choice of the future coalition to form will be decisive for the country’s future economic direction. Below, we analyse the proposals by the main political parties on taxation, pensions, employment, and the future of the European project.
- Multiple forms of coalition have already emerged in the German history. Recent polls suggest either the continuation of the current alliance between the CDU/CSU and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) or an alliance of the majority party with the Liberal Democratic Party (FDP) and the Greens. In the first case, the country would shift towards a policy of increased social spending and a strengthening of the European project. In the second, there would be a more liberal orientation, skewed towards greater labour market flexibility, with European concerns lower down in the agenda.
