Earlier and faster

UBS
Door februari 13, 2018 01:00

Earlier and faster

Regional view – United Kingdom

Earlier and faster. Three words that sum up the last week's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting and readings from the inflation report. In summary, the Bank of England (BoE) is preparing us for interest rates to rise soon, and for subsequent hikes to be a little more frequent than we have been used to. In fairness, given that base rates have increased once in the last decade, a rate rise before February 2028 would meet this criterion. So we can be pretty confident that the "faster" mandate will be met, but what about the "earlier" part? A few weeks back we revised our growth, inflation, and interest rate forecasts in light of the better-than-expected performance of the economy last year. We expect the BoE to hike base rates when it meets in May, and following last week's meeting, it would seem the markets would now agree with us. Prior to the release of the Inflation Report, markets were only placing a 50– 60% chance of a hike in May, after which the probability had risen to around 70%. So, it is likely that the "earlier" mandate will also be met. Another matter that made the headlines was the upgrade to the Bank's growth forecasts; they are now predicting 1.8% GDP growth for 2018, not too dissimilar to what we saw last year. 

UBS
Door februari 13, 2018 01:00

Zoek

Asset Allocation Consensus Juli

Evenementen

  1. IPFOS – Bestuurders Conferentie 2019

    september 5 @ 14:00 - 18:00
  2. Invesco & Schroders – Real Assets & Energy Transition

    september 10 @ 09:30 - 13:00
  3. Candriam – Sustainbale Investment Conference

    september 12 @ 13:30 - 20:30
  4. ACTIAM – ACTIAM Academy

    september 17 @ 09:30 - 13:00
  5. Markets Group – 3rd Benelux Institutional Forum

    september 26 @ 07:30 - 18:00

Twitter

As the integration of #ESG factors into #investment decision-making becomes increasingly mainstream, Hamish Galpin explains why over-reliance on ESG ratings can paint a misleading picture of the small-cap #market
https://t.co/Zn0tHeVhAM

🚀 Fund launch 🚀
Muzinich hands A-rated manager new short duration investment grade fund
➡️ https://t.co/68LjM7a5dc
✏️ @chris_sloley

Inflation Signals Holding Up via @JHIAdvisorsUS -> https://t.co/FLKUEOfFV4 "Impact of Tail Risk Signals on Hypothetical Asset Allocation" #assetallocation #CPI

Invesco Global Fixed Income Study 2019 | Page 16: Potential next trigger for recession -> https://t.co/n5gZ8V35J4 … #FixedIncome

#Blackrock writes: "We are downgrading our #global growth outlook as trade disputes and broader #geopolitical tensions stoke greater macro uncertainty. The range of potential economic..." Read the whole #outlook here: https://t.co/KgO1qLRRHg

Load More...

Zoek op datum

februari 2018
M D W D V Z Z
« jan   mrt »
 1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
262728