Earlier and faster

UBS
By February 13, 2018 01:00

Earlier and faster

Regional view – United Kingdom

Earlier and faster. Three words that sum up the last week's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting and readings from the inflation report. In summary, the Bank of England (BoE) is preparing us for interest rates to rise soon, and for subsequent hikes to be a little more frequent than we have been used to. In fairness, given that base rates have increased once in the last decade, a rate rise before February 2028 would meet this criterion. So we can be pretty confident that the "faster" mandate will be met, but what about the "earlier" part? A few weeks back we revised our growth, inflation, and interest rate forecasts in light of the better-than-expected performance of the economy last year. We expect the BoE to hike base rates when it meets in May, and following last week's meeting, it would seem the markets would now agree with us. Prior to the release of the Inflation Report, markets were only placing a 50– 60% chance of a hike in May, after which the probability had risen to around 70%. So, it is likely that the "earlier" mandate will also be met. Another matter that made the headlines was the upgrade to the Bank's growth forecasts; they are now predicting 1.8% GDP growth for 2018, not too dissimilar to what we saw last year. 

UBS
By February 13, 2018 01:00

Search

Twitter

Don't want to miss #research on #centralbanks? Check out @Opinio_Pro -> https://www.opiniopro.com/tag/central-banks/ #ecb #fed

My latest Global Political Risks report: Abnormal or surprisingly normal post-corona-world? https://ecrresearch.com/research?area=gi_gpa

Op de hoogte blijven over onze aankomende webinars? Schrijf je nu in voor de Alpha Research webinar nieuwsbrief: https://www.alpharesearch.nl/events/webinar/

How Global Central Banks are Responding to COVID-19, in One Chart https://www.visualcapitalist.com/global-central-banks-policy-response-covid-19/ #CentralBanks #EXB #fomc #COVIDー19 via @VisualCap

Check out our events calendar, with a lot of interesting #webinars! https://opiniopro.com/events/ #research #HomeOffice

Load More...

Search on date

February 2018
M T W T F S S
 1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
262728