Considerable progress, but the hardest is yet to come

Crédit Agricole
By March 28, 2018 19:02

Considerable progress, but the hardest is yet to come

  • Considerable progress was made in the Brexit negotiations over the last few weeks. Of course, this required much comprise, some from the European Union, but mainly from the UK, despite significant disagreement within the Tory party. On March 23, the EU published new guidelines for the future relationship, which show a desire to come to a more extensive free-trade agreement than was agreed with Canada (the CETA).
  • The probability of a cliff-edge scenario (i.e. no deal) on 29 March 2019 has diminished considerably following the recent agreement on a transition period. This risk has not, however, been eliminated. There are still difficult issues to be resolved, including the Irish border question, which is a source of major political risk. Furthermore, negotiations over the future relationship are only just beginning, and there are going to be divergences that will have to be smoothed out.
  • In our opinion, the latest developments suggest a marginal further increase in the probability of a soft Brexit. This will require the UK Government to further soften its red lines (notably on the question of belonging to an EU customs union). It is not out of reach. 
Crédit Agricole
By March 28, 2018 19:02


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