Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation

ECB
Door juni 19, 2018 14:27

Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation

The low rates of price inflation in both the United States and the Euro area have been resistant to tightening economic conditions. As measured by the unemployment rate, the U.S. economy in particular is at historically tight levels. One possibility is that the unemployment rate understates slack because of special features of the financial crisis recession and the long recovery, however we find the same puzzling quiescence of inflation in both the U.S. and the Euro Area when we look at other slack measures. We therefore turn to the possibility that inflation is increasing – but only in those sectors that are historically cyclically sensitive, with prices set not in international markets but locally (such restaurants and hotels). We find that cyclically sensitive inflation has increased slightly in the U.S. over the past two years, but has been stable in the Euro Area.

ECB
Door juni 19, 2018 14:27

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Asset Allocation Consensus September

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