A different read of the U.S. yield curve

A different read of the U.S. yield curve

🕔02:08, 7.Aug 2018

BII Global weekly commentary Key points The U.S. yield curve’s recent steepening offers a reminder that global factors – such as Bank of Japan monetary policy – help shape the curve. Global stocks finished last week flat amid escalating trade

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Uncomfortably high

Uncomfortably high

🕔02:03, 7.Aug 2018

"let's not forget that, on top of all this, the risks of a no deal Brexit remain, in BoE Governor Mark Carney's own words, "uncomfortably high".  Last week, as anticipated by the markets, the Bank of England (BoE) increased the

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Value’s turn

Value’s turn

🕔02:03, 7.Aug 2018

The recent rotation into value stocks is poised to continue as investors focus on valuations and the sustainability of global economic growth.  Ponder this question: if your equity portfolio rose 15% over the last 18 months would you be satisfied

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Turkey’s precarious situation

Turkey’s precarious situation

🕔02:03, 7.Aug 2018

With monetary policy already tight, the ball is in the government’s court to stabilize the economy with a less expansive fiscal policy.  Turkey's new government is under increasing pressure to engineer a slowdown in the economy without further destabilizing its

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A case for owning scarce assets

A case for owning scarce assets

🕔02:03, 7.Aug 2018

"Yields of long-dated bonds are often a poor predictor of their near-term total return"  Seven months of the year have passed and, when one thinks about investment positioning from here, it is worth reviewing performance against expectations. Who foresaw 10-year

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BoJ cuts chances for mediumterm “big bang” yen rally

BoJ cuts chances for mediumterm “big bang” yen rally

🕔02:03, 7.Aug 2018

Considering these policy announcements, we keep our USDJPY forecast range at 107–112 for the next six months. The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) ultraaccommodative monetary policy is one of the few vestiges of the 2008 global financial crisis. While other major

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Trade tensions: What’s priced in?

Trade tensions: What’s priced in?

🕔02:03, 7.Aug 2018

Key Messages Strong earnings season, but growth stocks underperform. Japan adjusts policy, but shouldn't spark a global selloff. Trade tensions mean it's still too early to dive back into risk assets.

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US – Labor market remains strong overall

US – Labor market remains strong overall

🕔04:03, 4.Aug 2018

Enjoy summer doldrums!  No potentially market-moving events are scheduled for the upcoming week. So, markets will take their guidance from this week’s releases, possibly enhanced by one tweet or another. Periods like this give us the opportunity to look a

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The times are a changin’ and so is Japan

The times are a changin’ and so is Japan

🕔14:45, 3.Aug 2018

Price Point From aging demographics and labor shortages to changing consumption patterns and dietary habits, Japanese society is undergoing significant change. One of the biggest changes that we are seeing is in relation to Japanese workers, who are increasingly changing

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As good as it gets

As good as it gets

🕔14:36, 3.Aug 2018

That it’s weakening. The data were pretty strong around the turn of the year, but since then they have become more negative. One of the reasons for this has been the rising oil price, which is a tax on consumers.

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Rebalance or Rush Hour?

Rebalance or Rush Hour?

🕔13:13, 3.Aug 2018

Key Points Systematic rebalancing raises the likelihood of improving long-term risk-adjusted investment returns. The benefits of rebalancing result from opportunistically capitalizing on human behavioral tendencies and long-horizon mean reversion in asset class prices. Investors who “institutionalize contrarian investment behavior” by

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Market Attributes: U.S. Equities July 2018

Market Attributes: U.S. Equities July 2018

🕔11:02, 3.Aug 2018

KEY HIGHLIGHTS The S&P 500® was up 3.60% in July, bringing the YTD return to 5.34%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average® gained 4.71% for the month and was up 2.82% YTD. The S&P MidCap 400® was up 1.68% for the

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What can bond investors do to help manage interest rate risk?

What can bond investors do to help manage interest rate risk?

🕔10:32, 3.Aug 2018

To help protect against rising rates, investors may be compelled to remove duration from their portfolios by moving to a money market fund or bank deposits, but that may not be the best strategy.

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Keep Up The Momentum

Keep Up The Momentum

🕔10:10, 3.Aug 2018 Read Full Article
Where will the next financial crisis come from?

Where will the next financial crisis come from?

🕔10:10, 3.Aug 2018

Are we ready to confront it?  The world is not yet completely out of the 2007- 2008 financial crisis, but the risk of a new crisis already arises. The theme of “regime shift” (volatility, interest rate, inflation, etc.) has resurfaced,

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Time to Relax

Time to Relax

🕔04:03, 3.Aug 2018

Credit Markets Weekly Both in the primary and secondary markets for EUR-denominated bonds activity is currently easing off. In the primary market the traditional summer break has begun, during which new issuance activity is noticeably reduced. Accordingly the number of

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Fortune favours a bold BOJ?

Fortune favours a bold BOJ?

🕔15:03, 2.Aug 2018

The BOJ takes a step towards controlling the equity market, a shift that could generate fresh gains for Tokyo stocks Will market fortune favour a bold Bank of Japan? The BOJ has taken a radical step towards controlling the country’s

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Integrating the SDGs into a practical guide

Integrating the SDGs into a practical guide

🕔15:03, 2.Aug 2018

Transparency of business conduct has long been a primary engine of improvement and will remain critical as stakeholders across the world continue to advance the shared goals of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Businesses – big and small –

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Face-off

Face-off

🕔11:02, 2.Aug 2018

HouseView The past few days taught investors that when a theme changes into a hype, the fall from grace can be painful, even if the disappointment is slight relative to sometimes unrealistic expectations. This was probably a difficult lesson for

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Asset Class Forecasts Jul2018

Asset Class Forecasts Jul2018

🕔09:13, 2.Aug 2018

Medium and Long-Term Return Forecasts | Q3 – 2018  The current global expansion is set to run until 2020, with above potential growth in most countries in 2018 and 2019. However, the global GDP growth has started to decelerate and

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Coping with political uncertainties

Coping with political uncertainties

🕔05:01, 2.Aug 2018

This week, hedge fund returns were dragged by CTAs. Early signs of the Bank of Japan moving out of zero interest-rate policy hit their Japanese bonds and short JPY positions. Some Event-Driven strategies also suffered from idiosyncratic events, including the

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The ECB reveals an exit strategy

The ECB reveals an exit strategy

🕔19:02, 1.Aug 2018

House View After the volatility caused by Italy’s new government in May, the relative calm since June has been a welcome change. Even the ECB’s announcement that it would end its quantitative easing this year and not hike until next

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The intelligence that guides our investment decisions

The intelligence that guides our investment decisions

🕔19:02, 1.Aug 2018

House View Q3 2018 As the largest economy in the world, the United States has long been the most dominant player in global economic, military, political and financial market developments. Indeed, since the end of the Second World War, the

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Index Dashboard: Europe

Index Dashboard: Europe

🕔15:02, 1.Aug 2018

Summary European equities posted steady gains in July as last month’s focus on trade tensions and political risk largely gave way to earnings figures, economic data, and central bank guidance. The S&P Europe 350 gained 3.22%, with nearly all countries

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US Small Caps Continue to Power Ahead

US Small Caps Continue to Power Ahead

🕔15:02, 1.Aug 2018

Year to date, small caps (as measured by the Russell 2000 Index) have outperformed all other caps in the US equity markets.1 In the current environment, we see a range of supportive factors for small caps, and as such we believe

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The Politics and Processes of Brexit —Update to our June analysis

The Politics and Processes of Brexit —Update to our June analysis

🕔15:02, 1.Aug 2018

British Prime Minister Harold Wilson once memorably stated that ‘a week is a long time in politics’. Since writing our note on the process and politics of Brexit in June, we have seen a soft Brexit proposal finally materialize from

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ESG’s Evolving Performance: First, Do No Harm

ESG’s Evolving Performance: First, Do No Harm

🕔15:02, 1.Aug 2018

We evaluate the investment performance of ESG, paying particular attention to recent performance and highlighting the difference between ESG scores that overlap with traditional risk model factors and those that don’t. Our analysis indicates that, in general, increasing exposure to

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Liquidity Survey Report

Liquidity Survey Report

🕔15:02, 1.Aug 2018

Five months after enactment of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA), 40 percent of survey respondents continue to be uncertain about some of its provisions and anticipate no changes in spending at their companies. About one-fourth of

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Global active bond fund returns: a factor decomposition

Global active bond fund returns: a factor decomposition

🕔15:02, 1.Aug 2018

How much of a global active bond fund’s return can be explained by risk factors, and how much can be attributed to alpha (manager security selection and market timing)? We studied the ten-year average performance of 15 types of global

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Sunny spells with thundery showers

Sunny spells with thundery showers

🕔15:02, 1.Aug 2018

Investment Outlook  We expect markets to experience heightened volatility in the coming months as a number competing forces buffet the global macroeconomy, causing sentiment fluctuations in all asset classes. Central bank liquidity removal will be a key theme, an event

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Index Dashboard: Dispersion, Volatility & Correlation

Index Dashboard: Dispersion, Volatility & Correlation

🕔15:02, 1.Aug 2018

In July, shared U.S. equity risk declined while individual risks rose: market volatility fell and dispersion increased. Naturally, correlations also declined.  The higher S&P 500 dispersion this month was in part due to the mixed reactions to Q2 earnings; most

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Think Income and Growth Don’t Exist in This Market? Think Again.

Think Income and Growth Don’t Exist in This Market? Think Again.

🕔13:02, 1.Aug 2018

Are you having the following argument with yourself? “I need an investment that’s going to provide me not only income, but growth too. Unfortunately, investors have been piling into dividend funds for years now in their search for yield. I’m

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Should China be a part of your portfolio?

Should China be a part of your portfolio?

🕔05:00, 1.Aug 2018

China Unleashed China is now the world’s largest economy in terms of purchasing power (China GDP of USD23.3 trillion, against US GDP of USD19.4 trillion)1 , and even a conservative 6-7% estimate of slower growth exceeds the developing world’s (US

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China: One to One

China: One to One

🕔05:00, 1.Aug 2018

China: Joseph Little, Chief Global Strategist & James Levy, Global Head of Dealing Key Takeaways: Growing investor interest in Chinese onshore equities, supported by further liberalisation of Chinese capital markets and inclusion in MSCI indices China A-shares are seeing improved corporate

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Treat the trade truce with caution

Treat the trade truce with caution

🕔02:03, 1.Aug 2018

1. Fundamentals strong despite tech wobble. Facebook's disappointing results offered investors a reminder of the downside to over-concentration in a single stock. The shares at one stage appeared on track for a 20% single-day fall, equivalent to USD 150bn of

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Is the CNY being used as a trade weapon?

Is the CNY being used as a trade weapon?

🕔02:03, 1.Aug 2018

If word got out that the government was intentionally devaluing the CNY to erode the US's trade competitiveness, investors would likely scramble to convert their renminbi holdings into US dollars. The Chinese yuan's slide in recent weeks versus the greenback

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