Rising but uneven pricing power in the Eurozone and the implications for credit

AXA
Door september 12, 2018 14:04

Rising but uneven pricing power in the Eurozone and the implications for credit

Research & Strategy Insights

  • Core inflation in the Eurozone has been modestly normalising since mid-2015. Splitting the Consumer Price Index basket at the micro level confirms that the ongoing normalisation has been largely supported by cyclically-priced sectors and should therefore be self-sustained thanks to the Eurozone recovery.
  • Historically, credit performance is more affected by changes in real interest rates (monetary policy) rather than inflation. In this respect, the return of Eurozone inflation should remain benign for corporate credit, as the European Central Bank remains cautious and mindful of the asymmetry of risks. And, as a result, is likely to prefer to be a little behind the curve than tighten too soon and harm the fragile recovery.
  • From a sector and firm perspective, the ongoing, modest monetary normalisation seems manageable. While pricing pressure may be high in certain sectors, it often results from major external forces, among which technological disruptions are central. In this context, we expect sector and firm differentiation to gain importance in the volatility of European credit return
AXA
Door september 12, 2018 14:04

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