The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) – Fourth quarter of 2018

By 👤ECB October 26, 2018 15:16

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Fourth quarter of 2018

The results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the fourth quarter of 2018 show average inflation expectations of 1.7% for each of 2018, 2019 and 2020, unchanged from the previous survey.1 Average longer-term inflation expectations (which refer to 2023) remained stable at 1.9%. Expectations for real GDP growth were revised down further to stand at 2.0%, 1.8%, and 1.6% for 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively. Expectations for real GDP growth in the longer term remained unchanged at 1.6%. The unemployment rate was expected to continue falling further, and expectations for 2018, 2019 and 2020 were revised down.