EA – Different growth momentum is expected at country level in 3Q18

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Week Ahead

Next week (October 30), Eurostat will publish a first flash estimate of Euro Area GDP growth in 3Q18. In 2Q18, GDP growth in the Euro Area stabilized at +0.4% q/q compared to the previous quarter, although in the second quarter the growth momentum dropped significantly to +2.1% y/y (previously +2.4% y/y), compared to the same quarter of the previous year. At the country level, France and Italy were particularly disappointing in 2Q in terms of growth momentum (both +0.2% q/q), whereas Germany and Spain continued to make significant contributions to Euro Area growth. At the component level, the falling export momentum led to a significantly lower growth contribution from foreign trade. But also regarding investment and consumption, the growth momentum in 2Q18 weakened slightly, due to increased global uncertainty.