A Critical Point in the Cycle Going into the fourth quarter, the Asset Allocation Committee (AAC, “the Committee”) reflects upon how unusual 2018 has been for financial markets. One of its most notable features has been some extreme divergences between
House View On a tactical horizon, we think there is currently little merit in overweighting equities versus fixed income. At the same time, we maintain a long risk bias with an overweight in Alternatives. Our overall view of equities is
Report on the Pension Benefit Statement: guidance and principles based on current practices This report analyses the national practices existing prior to the implementation of the Directive (EU) 2016/2341 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 14 December
Working Paper Series “Big data” is becoming an increasingly important aspect of our daily lives as the digital sources of information and intelligence that it encompasses become more structured and more publicly available. These sources may enable the generation of
Themes and implications from the Multi-Asset Solutions Strategy Summit 1Q 2019 The economic outlook is reasonable, and the risk of recession in the next 12 months remains quite low; however, global growth reverted to trend more quickly than expected, U.S.
Global Investment Views This year has proven to be challenging for portfolio construction, as well as regarding returns. To put this into perspective, for 2009-17, our analysis shows that each year, on average, 76% of major asset classes (including different
2019 Global Economic Outlook We expect the key macro theme next year will be re-convergence of global growth rates, but there are several “ifs.” The US Federal Reserve needs to resist the temptation to push real policy rates back toward
Abstract 2018 will remain a landmark year, one that goes hand in hand with an increase in trade tariff measures and that marks the intensification of the trade dispute between the United States and countries such as China, Mexico and
Credit Markets Weekly Italy signalling willingness to compromise Last week the EU Commission declared the debt criterion as not fulfilled by Italy and thus launched an excessive deficit procedure based on the rules of the Fiscal and Stability Pact against
EUR/USD – environment continues to favor the dollar The US dollar gained additional ground in recent weeks. The drivers were both the political backdrop (Brexit, Italy's budget) and the deterioration in European economic data. In our opinion these dollar-supportive factors
Tactical Asset Allocation – October 2018 We build our funds, including bonds, equities, commercial property and other assets looking over a 12 month time horizon. Our decision-making sequence is first to consider the outlook for each asset class (e.g. government
Equities face skepticism over rates and trade Even before equities sold off in early October following the spike in the 10-year Treasury yield, clouds were on the horizon.
Allocation insight Autumn has arrived, and the holiday season is over also in Central Europe and in the US. The news stream is dominated by politics. In addition to Italy’s latest political intricacies, we will look into the impacts of
On the Markets With the current economic expansion and bull market now among the longest on record, it’s natural to consider how this cycle could end. Given many of the headlines dominating markets this year—tech leadership and crowding, emerging markets
Introduction In the last two issues of Investment Outlook, we have emphasised that we are in the latter part of the economic cycle. We expected this to result in greater instability and less risk tolerance among investors, yet we maintained
A comparative study of 76 Dutch listed companies For the fourth consecutive year, we present the Tax Transparency Benchmark. In this report, we present the results of the 2018 edition, in which 76 Dutch companies are ranked on the level
Financiële dienstverlening De financiële dienstverlening is de enige sector in de economie waar het aantal banen structureel krimpt. UWV verwacht dat de banenkrimp ook de komende jaren doorzet, hoewel de relatieve omvang van de krimp iets afvlakt. Het aantal banen
CIO View G20 summit to be one more event for which first market reactions could be misleading, as we expect a quick fix, but no sustainable solution. Markets are likely to concentrate on any tariff ceasefire. But we believe tariffs
Hints of an economic slowdown are appearing, and expectations are increasing that central banks may loosen their monetary policy — but I’m not sure central banks will come to the rescue this time. Hints of an economic slowdown are appearing.
Discussion Paper 2018 will remain a landmark year, one that goes hand in hand with an increase in trade tariff measures and that marks the intensification of the trade dispute between the United States and countries such as China, Mexico
Weekly Digest It goes without saying that we make investments for the sole benefit of our clients, but what if our investing activities can make a wider positive impact too? I was in Ghana two weeks ago for the official
Many asset managers consider treasury part of their operations unit and manage this function through manual, spreadsheet-oriented processes and support staff. Forward-looking asset managers, however, have recognized the importance of treasury, not only in reducing operational risks and protecting assets
Investment Talks Where we stand and possible scenarios ahead: After the EU approval of Brexit deal, we are going to pass through some tough times until the UK parliamentary vote on Brexit Withdrawal Agreement in December. UK Parliamentary ratification of
Flash Note Theresa May’s cabinet has approved her divorce deal with the European Union (EU). A few cabinet secretaries have resigned, including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab because the deal keeps the UK in a transitory ‘customs union’ with the EU,
Problem: Technology has improved our standard of living, but the rapid pace of development has created ethical dilemmas for companies, impacted many users and overwhelmed regulatory bodies. § Development: Facebook’s Cambridge Analytica scandal is an obvious example of an ethical
This paper analyses the implications of the United Kingdom’s decision to exit the European Union—“Brexit”—for the investment management industry. It serves as a guide for investment professionals. The Brexit process began when the UK government exercised Article 50 of the
Global Market Outlook While global growth is expected to slow in 2019, with the balance of risks to the downside, we expect investors will still be able to find attractive opportunities in certain parts of the markets where fundamentals remain
We expect global growth to slow from 3.8% in 2018 to 3.5% in 2019, with risks skewed to the downside reflecting continued uncertainty around trade disputes, even after the US mid-term elections (see Figure 1). Amid one of the longest
On November 6th the US mid-term elections were held in what was widely seen as a referendum on the presidency of Donald Trump. The results presented a mixed result for Mr Trump and his Republican Party. Republicans made gains in
Ethics & Alpha There is no such thing as an overnight sensation. The Beatles toiled the club circuit for years on the road to superstardom; vacuum cleaner billionaire Sir James Dyson went through over five thousand prototypes before his eureka moment;
Each quarter, Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger takes a quick tour of what he’s hearing from total-return-focused investors and what’s “top of mind” in terms of strategic and opportunistic ideas. Here we highlight some of his thoughts from the latest session
Problem: Technology has improved our standard of living, but the rapid pace of development has created ethical dilemmas for companies, impacted many users and overwhelmed regulatory bodies. Development: Facebook’s Cambridge Analytica scandal is an obvious example of an ethical lapse,
Strategy Espresso In October, global equities endured their worst performance since May 2012, with US growth posting a negative return of almost 2 standard deviations. Last week we continued to witness the same bearish sentiment that we did in October. The increased
Market outlook Currencies showed a mixed performance in CEE last week. The Polish zloty pared earlier losses, as investors seem to have swallowed the corruption scandal to some extent. Currently, the EURPLN is close to our forecast. In Hungary, however,
Regional view – United Kingdom "'Are we there yet?' is something we might hear asked more in the weeks and months (hopefully not years) ahead."
Regional view – Emerging Markets Emerging markets need certain conditions to turn their resilience into performance. The likelihood of these conditions happening is growing.
Regional view – Europe "Taxing trade is an economic negative, but companies have been able to evade some of the trade tariffs."
Regional view – Asia While we would avoid broad exposure, we do see opportunities opening up for select stocks following the recent sell-off.
Equity market sentiment faces a key test. Global equities suffered a 2.6% two-day sell-off last week, leaving the index close to 10% down from the year's peak. The slide reflected continued worries over slowing smartphone sales, along with disappointing earnings
Follow the money When we try to get to the bottom of what is happening in the financial markets, we prefer to let money flows guide us to the underlying causes. We believe that the massive liquidity injection by major
A question of perspective: U.S. equities are struggling – but are more resilient than other assets What do you think of a soccer game that ends in a brittle 1:1? It depends on your perspective. Some spectators will think they
Klaar voor een basisplaats De risico- en rendementskarakteristieken van het Green Bond universum zijn vergelijkbaar met een gecombineerde portefeuille van ‘grijze’ Staats- en niet Staatsobligaties. Green Bonds hebben een vergelijkbare liquiditeit en het beleggen in Green Bonds brengt geen extra
Outlook 2019 US growth is forecast to slow in 2019 to 2.3% from 2.9%, with the Fed’s hiking cycle likely to close in that year. More material slowdown looks likely in 2020, when we forecast GDP growth of 1.4% and
Market flash It was another difficult week with mostly the same preoccupations: – doubts on the strength of the global economy – worries over company margins – looming monetary policy normalisation – threats to global trade – concerns over a
When the RBC GAM Global Equity team was formed back in 2006, we had two principles front of mind: i) that meeting our purpose of making a positive difference for clients would best be achieved through owning a portfolio of
Investment Grade Debt Update Concerns regarding slowing global growth were exacerbated by a sharp fall in oil prices, while in the UK, a wave of government resignations overshadow a Brexit deal.
Emerging Market Debt Update Emerging markets (EM) came under pressure this week as Brexit negotiations and the Italian budget took centre stage. The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept rates on hold but reiterated its plans for further gradual increases, all but
European high yield (HY) has been a much-overlooked asset class recently but is it time for investors to pay attention? The reach for yield from other quarters pushed European HY bond valuations, in many cases, to uncomfortably tight levels. In
Fall 2018 Looking past political gridlock in the U.S. With the U.S. midterm elections behind us and producing widely expected results, we anticipate political gridlock but few long-term market implications for now. Instead, investors can return their focus to fundamentals.
Asset Allocation
