UK’s future relationship with EU fully open

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Week ahead

The agreement between the UK and EU announced this week is only a stage in the divorce process and not more. It is far from over. The outcome remains completely open, especially as a majority in the British Parliament for the negotiated package is very doubtful from today's point of view. At the same time, however, this is only a snapshot. There is probably a month left before the vote. What will be decisive is how the public debate goes up to that point. Everything seems possible, from a majority vote to the resignation of Theresa May. The intensity of the reaction in the United Kingdom – various ministers and state secretaries have resigned and Theresa May's own party is working on a motion of censure – is an indication to us, however, that a hard Brexit has become more likely since this week. We would therefore like to reiterate here the most important effects on the economy and the financial markets.