Extending the Long and Winding Road of the Business Cycle

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2019 Global Economic Outlook

• We expect the key macro theme next year will be re-convergence of global growth rates, but there are several “ifs.”
• The US Federal Reserve needs to resist the temptation to push real policy rates back toward past levels of neutral.
• China needs to diversify the range of tools used to lean against the negative impact of US tariffs on Chinese goods and stimulate private sector growth.