Global Growth Slows, With Trade Wars Biggest Risk

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We expect global growth to slow from 3.8% in 2018 to 3.5% in 2019, with risks skewed to the downside reflecting continued uncertainty around trade disputes, even after the US mid-term elections (see Figure 1). Amid one of the longest economic expansions in history, we have witnessed “mini-cycles” over the past few years; growth slowed in 2016 and reaccelerated in 2017–2018, partly because of the effects of the oil price rebound on US activity, and looks set to slow again in 2019, partially because the fiscally induced late-cycle “sugar rush” will end in the United States.