As QE ends, will the global cycle turn?

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Macroeconomic Outlook 2019

• We expect the US will enter a cyclical slowdown in 2019 while the Fed will end its hiking cycle at 3%-3.25%
• The Eurozone is already slowing down and we see European politics skewing risks to the downside. The European Central Bank will likely be prudent and leave interest rates on hold until at least September
• We have a less positive view on risk assets and are looking to move equities back to a neutral position over the course of 2019