Global economic slowdown? Not so fast…

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Global macro monthly

We believe the US economy will slow over the next two years. We forecast that this will start modestly (2.3% for 2019) but then gather momentum and turn into a material deceleration in 2020, (1.4% forecast) although we do not anticipate that there will be an outright contraction in either year. Our view is more pessimistic than the consensus forecast, which assumes growth of 2.6% in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020. However, recent market moves suggest there are fears of a sharper slowdown.