House View – Weekly Global

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Here is the #1 way a yield curve inversion could hurt your portfolio

A flattening yield curve was cited as another source of market anxiety in various media reports. The closely watched spread between two-year and 10-year US Treasury yields compressed to an 11-year low of 12 basis points. That raised the threat of an "inversion" of the curve, sometimes considered a predictor of recessions. But we think it would be a mistake to view the shape of the yield curve as a sell signal for equities.