Global Macro Outlook January 2019

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Key Forecast Trends

•  When 2018 began, the global economy was in a cyclical sweet spot. But gathering headwinds—including those caused by debt, demographic trends and populism—changed that, leading to slower growth and poor risk-asset returns.
• Investors who expected last year to be the one when conditions returned to normal were disappointed. The definition of what’s “normal” needs a reset.
• We expect global growth to continue to slow in 2019—a normalization, if you will, back towards growth rates more consistent with a soft secular backdrop