Brexit deal voted down: what happens now?

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Developments and scenarios ahead: The Brexit deal’s defeat in Parliament was expected, but the size of the loss was not – the result of 432 votes against versus 202 for was quite a surprise. In light of the larger-than-expected scale of the defeat, we have revised upward the probability of a no-deal Brexit (20% vs. 15% previously). Overall, our most likely scenario remains that the Brexit deadline arrives with a ratified deal (50% probability vs. 60% previously)