US to avoid recession, for now

Also Interesting

• Investing in China is a question of stock picking rather than index picking
• Interest rate trends favor the US dollar
• The power of narratives for investors

Tighter financial conditions still point to material softening

• Tighter financial conditions around the turn of the year have raised fears of a US recession.
• Estimated recession probability indicators remain below thresholds reached before previous downturns. For now, we do not expect a recession in the US over the next 12 months.
• The path of risk sentiment will be important from here. We consider a lot of bad news to have been priced in and look to some improvement over the coming months.