European high yield 2019

Also Interesting

• Ultra dovish Central Banks put fixed income investing back to the core
• Investing in a noisy economic environment
• Global Market Perspective Q1 2019

• One year ago we expected in our base case scenario a total return of 1% to 2% for the European HY market for 2018 with some moderate spread tightening.
• We were clearly wrong with our base case forecast as the EUR HY market faced the first negative performance since 2011 with spreads widening by more than 200bps. The 2018 total return of c. -3.6% was closer to our forecast for the downside case scenario.
• Whereas the market performed in line with our view during the first 3 quarters, the negative performance occurred during the 4th quarter 2018.