The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) – First quarter of 2019

Also Interesting

• Big isn’t always best – going global in small caps global equities
• Higher EUR/USD in 2017
• Barometer: Een herstel waarin we kunnen geloven

Summary

The results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the first quarter of 2019 show downward revisions to inflation and real GDP growth expectations, particularly in the near term1 . HICP inflation expectations stood at 1.5%, 1.6% and 1.7% for 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively. Longer-term inflation expectations were also revised down, to 1.8% from 1.9%. Expectations for real GDP growth stood at 1.5%, 1.5%, and 1.4% for 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively. Expectations for real GDP growth in the longer term were also revised down, to 1.5%. Unemployment rate expectations were broadly unchanged and continued to point to further falls towards a longer-term unemployment rate of 7.5%.