A very challenging 2019 ahead
Also Interesting
Outlooks & Conviction
Central bank liquidity should continue to contract but much less markedly as most of the ground was covered in 2018. Elsewhere, we expect the Fed to continue raising rates, but its new optionality now makes it less certain that returns on risk-free assets will increase further. Financial conditions are unlikely to ease but they should not significantly jeopardise performance as in 2018. As the economic outlook is still looking rather favourable and we are ruling out a recession, the environment is looking rosier again. That is why we remain invested, and notably in equities. It is difficult to say when the turmoil which erupted in the fourth quarter will end, but we have no doubt that periods when markets deviate from the fundamental picture can only be temporary. We simply have to be patient.
