Global Growth under Pressure in 2019

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Trade war and Federal Reserve weigh on global economy The global economic environment has deteriorated noticeably in the 2nd half of 2018. In our opinion the main reasons for this are the geopolitical agenda of the Trump administration (e.g. the trade dispute) and the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. In 2019 the simmering trade conflict is likely to particularly weigh on economic areas with trade surpluses (e.g. China and the Eurozone). From the perspective of emerging markets, elevated financial market volatility as well as expectations for a continued restrictive US monetary policy put additional pressure on the outlook for economic growth in 2019