Global outlook
Also Interesting
- The Economist Intelligence Unit has revised its UK political forecast in the light of the impasse over the Brexit withdrawal agreement. We now expect Article 50 to be extended, meaning that the UK will not leave the EU on March 29th 2019. However, we continue to expect a version of the Brexit deal negotiated between the UK and the EU in November to be ultimately approved, but the likelihood of a second referendum has risen as a result of recent events. We believe that a "no deal" Brexit is now the least likely scenario.
- The US-China trade war has begun to weigh on Germanyrs economy, with both exports and imports struggling in November. Industrial production also contracted in November, and we have therefore revised down our 2019 real GDP forecast for Germany from 1.6% to 1.2%. We now expect the euro zone to expand by 1.5% in 2019, down from 1.7% as previously forecast.
- We have revised our oil price forecast. We now expect dated Brent Blend prices to ease from US$71.1/barrel in 2018 to US$66/b in 2019 (from US$70/b previously), owing to higher than previously expected supplies from Iran and weaker demand growth. We expect oil prices to slump further in 2020, to an average of US$60.5/b (from US$67.5/b previously).
