The Global Investment Outlook
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Global economy decelerates as headwinds mount and tailwinds fade After enjoying solid and accelerating global growth in 2017 and the first half of 2018, momentum has waned and we expect this trend to continue into 2019. Financial conditions have worsened due to rising interest rates, widening credit spreads, falling stock prices and a stronger U.S. dollar. Moreover, the U.S. fiscal stimulus program will provide less of a boost in 2019 and could become a drag on growth in 2020. We therefore budget for slower growth going forward, much of which was already reflected in our forecasts last quarter, but we have lowered them slightly again this quarter to levels that are mostly below the consensus. That said, our forecast of 3.75 percent for global growth in 2019, down from the 4.00 percent forecast for this year and achieved in 2017, is still near the upper end of the range of growth rates experienced in the past seven years
