Perseverance or Denial? We stick to our forecasts

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• While macro data have been scant and mixed, the US Federal Reserve surprised with a very dovish tone
• Eurozone GDP ended 2018 in line with our expectations, with Italy in recession but France and Spain showing upside resilience. We see further slowdown ahead for the region
• The Brexit saga’s latest episode provided little clarity, although the clock keeps ticking
• Beyond the year-end technical rebound, Japanese growth should remain low
• China closed 2018 at 6.4% growth, the weakest in almost a decade but bank loans are accelerating encouragingly
• Similarly, indicators in other emerging markets pointed to a potential further economic slowdown ahead