Our tactical and strategic view

Deutsche AWM
By February 5, 2019 13:03

Our tactical and strategic view

Investment Traffic Lights

What was lost has been regained might sum up the past month. Many financial markets recovered in January almost exactly what they gave up in December. December 24 marked the low point of the almost perfect V-shaped performance of many stock indices. The same was true for the oil price, which has been remarkably closely correlated with the S&P 500 for several months now. The Vix, the index that tracks the implied volatility of the S&P 500, has meanwhile produced a near mirror image of this curve, following almost precisely the opposite trajectory over the past two months. Just before Christmas, as market alarm bells rang, it was about twice as high as at the end of January. Gold, on the other hand, has taken a completely different path, following an upward trend since August that accelerated in December and January. Several factors could be put forward to explain this, but the news that central banks have been buying more gold than for 50 years is certainly significant. 

Deutsche AWM
By February 5, 2019 13:03

SEARCH