Top Risks 2019

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Bad Seeds

The geopolitical environment is the most dangerous it’s been in decades … and at a moment when the global economy is faring well. Markets are increasingly volatile but resilient, taking hits but mostly bouncing back. What’s wrong with this picture? Nothing … yet. Geopolitical cycles are slow-moving. It takes a long time to build a geopolitical order; governments change course through the workings of complex institutions, coalition politics, election cycles, and checks and balances. Multilateral institutions take decades to build, and they gain momentum slowly. Norms and values need to develop, to become accepted, and to shape institutions and societies over time. Once in place, they’re sticky. And so, barring bad luck (read: a sudden unforeseen crisis), it takes years, even decades to knock down a geopolitical order. That process of erosion is underway around the world today.