Late Cycle vs. End Cycle Investing

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Asset Allocation Views

As the economic expansion aged and volatility increased throughout 2018, consensus shied from viewing the U.S. expansion as likely to continue for the foreseeable future to believing that we are in the late stages. We believe we are late cycle, not end cycle – a base case outlook driven by our rigorous approach to macroeconomic forecasting. Our key view is that one should continue to be invested, but judiciously prefer securities that are higher in quality and liquidity across asset classes.