EUR/USD: Low should be reached in Q2
By
👤Erste Group
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The latest statements by representatives of the US Federal Reserve mean that we no longer forecast the next interest rate hike for June, but only another hike at the end of the year. Accordingly, we have changed our forecast for the EURUSD and we now expect a trend reversal already in the second quarter and not only in the third. The euro should strengthen slightly by the middle of the year and post further gains thereafter. Political factors should be clarified in the coming weeks and months, from which the euro should benefit more than the dollar. The latest news from the negotiations between the US and China points to progress. On the other hand, the outcome of the Brexit negotiations remains more uncertain than ever. An orderly Brexit or an extension of the deadline seems (slightly) the most probable to us and is therefore the basis for our forecasts. If, on the other hand, a hard Brexit were to occur, this would probably mean further gains for the dollar and a reversal of the trend would be postponed.
By
👤Erste Group
