Dialling down the risk

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The Big Picture

2019 started well, both for us and for markets in general. We expected a rebound after the late-2018 sell-off but must now balance weaker than expected economic outcomes, barely adequate monetary growth and lower yields against more accommodative policy settings. Though we do not expect recession this year (and project the best medium-term returns on equities and real estate), we think we can see it on the horizon and are therefore continuing the process of gradually reducing the risk profile of our model asset allocation.