The Long View China is Too Big to Fail

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I am not a China specialist. This report is the result of several months of thought about the Chinese economy and the situation China is in, facing a trade war with the US at the same time as the economy is undergoing structural reforms. Throughout the second half of 2018, I was surprised to see how weak Chinese demand for goods and services was. This observation formed in me the suspicion that I am missing something in my assessment that China would be poised to “win” a trade war with the US, given its strong growth dynamic. So, I decided to take a fresh look at China, starting from the basics, considering the current situation and the long-term challenges the country faces over the next decade or so.