Trade Tensions Test China’s Provincial Economies

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China’s provincial economies have come under strain as the prolonged trade war between the U.S. and China hampers exports and overall economic activity. Using the Moody’s Analytics model of the global economy and the Moody’s Analytics model of China’s provincial economies, we assessed the potential fallout for China’s provinces if trade negotiations between the U.S. and China break down and tensions reignite. While China’s coastal provinces would bear the brunt of a protracted trade war, inland provinces’ rising participation in global value chains leaves them exposed should trade tensions re-escalate.