U.S. Equities February 2019

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In February, the S&P 500 continued where January left off, posting a broad 2.97% gain, after January’s 7.87% gain (the best since January 1987, the year of the crash), mostly negating December’s 9.18% fall (the worst December since 1931). The 11.08% YTD gain is the best since the 11.16% gain of 1991. The index ended the month 4.99% shy of a new closing high, as talk turned to that mark and “how sweet it would be” if it could do it for the upcoming 10th anniversary of the bull market on March 9, 2019 (actually that’s a Saturday, so it would be better to close out a late Friday night of partying). The bull, six trading days short of its anniversary date, has posted an annualized 17.69% total return—over three times the 5.42% annualized rate from the end of 1999, and almost double the 9.64% from the end of 1989 (10.09% from 1926, and 11.53% since I started at S&P DJI in May 1977). On a stock basis alone, the S&P 500 has gained USD 17.49 trillion (and that excludes the USD 3.3 trillion in dividends over the period, an extra 18.8%), as all U.S. equities have added USD 23.89 trillion (with the S&P Global BMI up USD 37.17 trillion). I believe, although I do not have the data to show it (which makes it opinion), that the USD 23 trillion U.S. equity market gain has affected the greatest number of people directly in U.S. history, working out to an average gain of USD 64,718 per person (not implying that the