Can cyclical stocks continue to trounce defensives? Russ discusses. Cyclicals rule. After getting trounced in Q4, year-to-date more cyclically oriented stocks and sectors have trounced “defensive”, less-cyclically exposed names. The trend has been even more pronounced during the past month. For
A consolidation year paving the way for growth In October 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) urged the world to intensify its efforts to combat climate change by meeting the goal of the 2016 Paris Agreement to limit
Europe’s economy looks to be on the cusp of recovery – a potential support for the region’s lagging risk assets. Yet there is a key risk to our base case: Trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe may heat up
Top Down Quarterly Assessment Our central case is still for a late-cycle phase, despite there still being a significant possibility of a tail risk of a slowdown (probability 20%)
Growth 1Q19 U.S. real GDP growth was 3.2% q/q saar, up a full percentage point from 2.2% in 4Q18. Despite the protracted government shutdown and an anticipated fading boost from tax cuts, growth in 1Q was bolstered by high inventories,
Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report Since last year we’ve taken a cautious stance on equities. This to a large extent reflected our view that the potential for corporate earnings growth in the medium term is muted, and that too-aggressive market
Macro Weekly When I left for my sabbatical the global economy was stumbling along. It still is. But here is hope as…
Eurozone heterogeneity remains an important constraint for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) transmission mechanism Significant regional differences in central bank liquidity provision/absorption and commercial bank liquidity utilisation make the implementation of a “one-size-fits-all” tiering-policy strategy challenging . The introduction of
We believe the current late cycle economic conditions – slower growth and stable inflation – coupled with central banks’ accommodative shift since the beginning of 2019, is creating a positive environment for inflation-linked bonds. In our view, beyond the recent
Macro and Market Perspectives April 2019 We expect Europe to shake off its current soft patch later this year, getting a boost from China’s stimulus efforts and any resulting rebound in global manufacturing. If the global growth backdrop improves and
Global economic growth is slowing. Emerging market (EM) central banks are also facing less inflationary pressure in 2019. Forecasters expect that, overall, EM central banks will cut rates or keep them unchanged (Figure 1). At the same time, the recent
Brian shares four charts illustrating the potential impact from climate-related risks on U.S. municipal bonds, commercial mortgage backed securities and utility stocks. Increasing average global temperatures are boosting the frequency at which extreme weather events occur, as well as their
Trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe may be heating up. Isabelle explains the potential impacts. We expect a recovery in Europe’s economy later in the year. But there’s a key risk to this base case of ours: Trade tensions
Yields on 10-year German Bunds have fallen to zero. What's the point of holding government bonds that literally seem to offer no returns?
There were no clear indications on market trends this week, a reflection of the difficulty investors are having in distinguishing between good and bad macro and company news. – Germany’s industrial PMI and IFO index remained weak, leading Berlin to
Mario Draghi normally goes to great lengths to avoid surprising markets. But after the ECB’s March meeting, he shifted course. He adjusted forward guidance by saying key interest rates would remain at their present levels for longer than previously assumed
In a nutshell After a strong performance in the first quarter of 2019, we are now further reducing risks and realize profits We reduce the overweight in US equities to "neutral", positioning ourselves more defensively Within the bond allocation, we
The consensus recommendation for Fixed Income is underweight for almost 7 years! Just 3 out of the top 10 asset managers are overweight now! Read the Aegon Asset Management, NN Investment Partners and JP Morgan reasons at www.opiniopro.com
Executive Summary Morningstar’s new Revenue Exposure by Region tool can lead to improved outcomes for investors by providing detailed insight into the global makeup of equity indexes and portfolios. Unlike traditional domicile-based classification, multinational companies no longer need to be
Economy and markets The start of the year saw most major indices recover with double digit growth after a disappointing fourth quarter of 2018. Global equities rose 12.6% during the first quarter of 2019, as measured by the benchmark MSCI
EZ: growth still under pressure Next week (April 30), the first flash estimate of Eurozone GDP growth for 1Q19 will be released. Given the continued disappointing development of leading indicators in the Eurozone, GDP data will also be in focus
Last Week Review Modest gain for global equities driven by the U.S. The U.S. economy grew 3.2% in first quarter. Global equities returned 0.4% last week with the U.S. as the only major equity region in positive territory. Following the modest
Investors were worried about another rate hike. Now they’re expecting a cut. Financial market expectations in 2019 have pivoted from a potential Federal Reserve rate hike to a rate cut, alleviating what had been a significant risk for investors. If there
Fundamentals The latest data releases have reaffirmed the picture of low inflation and muted growth. US core CPI came in below expectations at a lacklustre 2% year on year in March. Australian CPI fell significantly short of estimates, resulting in
'Groene consumptie' is een term die voor veel mensen veel verschillende dingen betekent. Laten we bij deze trend eens kijken naar het aspect voeding, in het bijzonder naar voedingsingrediënten en hoe voedsel wordt verbouwd. De meeste consumenten leggen bij groene
Handel, handel en nog eens handel De Amerikaanse president Trump heeft het gat in de handelsbalans van de Verenigde Staten tot één van de speerpunten van zijn beleid gemaakt. Alle economieën waarmee de Verenigde Staten een handelstekort heeft, zijn onder
In a series of articles Investec AM dives into the topic of de-dollarisation. How long will the USD will remain the dominant currency of the world? What will be the impact on markets and portfolio’s? Surprisingly, or maybe rightly so,
Some highlights of this report: Blockchain analysis suggests Bitcoin whales are now accumulating Significant parallels with the 2014-15 bear market have emerged HODLers almost break-even, with est. aggregate losses of $3 billion …
Satoshi Nakamoto published the bitcoin white paper 31/Oct 2008 [1], created the bitcoin genesis block 03/Jan 2009, and released the bitcoin code 08/Jan 2009. So begins a journey that leads to a $70bn bitcoin (BTC) market today. Bitcoin is the
Still some juice left, but not much Equity markets have remained buoyant in recent weeks: the S&P 500 is trending towards an all-time high, the European equity market (STOXX 600) is close to last year’s peak and the performances of
Bond Bulletin Credit markets have enjoyed a strong march upwards, supported by robust technicals and a broadly positive fundamental backdrop. With issuance set to pick up, could now be the time to take some chips off the table?
Energy Monitor US ends waivers on Iran sanctions Iran crude exports will drop, but not as far as people may fear Oil prices may gain somewhat, but upside potential is limited
Bonds rally as the Fed hits the pause button An inverted yield curve raises concerns about a U.S. downturn. The Federal Reserve’s dovish shift on interest rates has boosted Wall Street. China and the United States inch closer to finalizing
BII Global weekly commentary China’s local-currency bond market is opening up to global investors. The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index begins including yuan-denominated bonds this month, automatically adding exposure to such bonds for index investors. We favor maintaining such passive
Global markets and multi-asset portfolios An overweight to extended credit markets, particularly U.S. high yield, is our preferred method for taking risk in many of our portfolios today. This is somewhat at odds with historical performance—credit markets have not generally
Monthly Commodity Insights This year the CRB-index has risen by 10%. But over the past month the pace in growth of the index deteriorated slowly. Since mid-March, the CRB-index increased by only 1.4% until now. As we discussed in our
The Earnings Season Kicks Off US markets pushed inexorably towards all-time highs, leaving the S&P500 only 40 points off its September 2018 peak. However, trading was still thin, especially for the beginning of the quarterly earnings season. First quarter earnings
From crisis to Goldilocks We enter the second quarter with a constructive view on emerging markets debt (EMD). In our view, the combination of a dovish Federal Reserve (Fed)*, Chinese stimulus and a stable servicing backdrop should lead to a
How resilient is the rebound? The start of 2019 brought a rebound for global equities. After a bruising fourth-quarter sell-off, stocks bounced back despite concerns over slowing economic growth and downward earnings revisions. The Federal Reserve’s decision to put rate
Bumper Month and Quarter for Equities Globally Global equities and fixed income posted quarterly gains across the board with the MSCI All Country World Index and the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index gaining 12.2% and 2.9%, respectively. The starting
Prevention better than cure The strong, synchronised cycle of global growth has ended. Alongside hopes that the US–China trade negotiations will result in a deal and that Chinese growth picks up – but not deceiving ourselves about China’s ability to
The Earnings Season Kicks Off US markets pushed inexorably towards all-time highs, leaving the S&P500 only 40 points off its September 2018 peak. However, trading was still thin, especially for the beginning of the quarterly earnings season. First quarter earnings
Bonds rally as the Fed hits the pause button An inverted yield curve raises concerns about a U.S. downturn. The Federal Reserve’s dovish shift on interest rates has boosted Wall Street. China and the United States inch closer to finalizing
Market review Markets rallied significantly over the first quarter of 2019, with a change in rhetoric from the US Federal Reserve and a potential US-China trade resolution buoying returns for most asset classes. Chinese equities led the way over the
A post-dollar world While the dollar enjoys unipolar dominance, as outlined in "Why the US dollar remains centre stage", the next currency transition may not necessarily result in a ‘winner takes all’ outcome. Our paper, "What is driving de-dollarisation?", looks
A brief history of dime Twentieth century history provides us with a valuable roadmap to understand the rise of the dollar to a position of unipolar global dominance. While unipolar dominance may seem like the norm, history tells us that
How a global currency shift may surprise investors The global currency shift: A changing investment landscape presents compelling opportunities . The US dollar has dominated financial markets in the post-war period, but countries across the globe are increasingly taking steps
Market review Markets rallied significantly over the first quarter of 2019, with a change in rhetoric from the US Federal Reserve and a potential US-China trade resolution buoying returns for most asset classes. Chinese equities led the way over the
Pass the buck History provides us with a valuable roadmap to understand the rise of the US dollar to a position of unipolar global dominance, as highlighted in our papers, "Exploring the history of dollar dominance", and "Why the US
Top dollar The US dollar has enjoyed a dominant position for almost 30 years. Our paper, "Exploring the history of dollar dominance", looks at how the dollar cemented its position since the second world war. This paper focuses on the
