Why stability may be enough for cyclicals

Why stability may be enough for cyclicals

🕔17:18, 30.apr 2019

Can cyclical stocks continue to trounce defensives? Russ discusses. Cyclicals rule. After getting trounced in Q4, year-to-date more cyclically oriented stocks and sectors have trounced “defensive”, less-cyclically exposed names. The trend has been even more pronounced during the past month. For

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Is the earnings downgrade cycle over?

Is the earnings downgrade cycle over?

🕔13:02, 30.apr 2019

Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report Since last year we’ve taken a cautious stance on equities. This to a large extent reflected our view that the potential for corporate earnings growth in the medium term is muted, and that too-aggressive market

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Global Asset Class Spotlights Q2

Global Asset Class Spotlights Q2

🕔13:02, 30.apr 2019

Top Down Quarterly Assessment  Our central case is still for a late-cycle phase, despite there still being a significant possibility of a tail risk of a slowdown (probability 20%)

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Returned to the office with hope

Returned to the office with hope

🕔13:02, 30.apr 2019

Macro Weekly When I left for my sabbatical the global economy was stumbling along. It still is. But here is hope as…

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Economic Update

Economic Update

🕔13:02, 30.apr 2019

Growth 1Q19 U.S. real GDP growth was 3.2% q/q saar, up a full percentage point from 2.2% in 4Q18. Despite the protracted government shutdown and an anticipated fading boost from tax cuts, growth in 1Q was bolstered by high inventories,

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Emerging Market Green Bonds Report 2018

Emerging Market Green Bonds Report 2018

🕔13:02, 30.apr 2019

A consolidation year paving the way for growth   In October 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) urged the world to intensify its efforts to combat climate change by meeting the goal of the 2016 Paris Agreement to limit

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Trade troubles near Europe’s shores

Trade troubles near Europe’s shores

🕔13:02, 30.apr 2019

Europe’s economy looks to be on the cusp of recovery – a potential support for the region’s lagging risk assets. Yet there is a key risk to our base case: Trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe may heat up

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The ECB and tiering

The ECB and tiering

🕔12:49, 30.apr 2019

Eurozone heterogeneity remains an important constraint for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) transmission mechanism Significant regional differences in central bank liquidity provision/absorption and commercial bank liquidity utilisation make the implementation of a “one-size-fits-all” tiering-policy strategy challenging . The introduction of

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What does the current late economic cycle mean for inflation-linked bonds?

What does the current late economic cycle mean for inflation-linked bonds?

🕔12:08, 30.apr 2019

We believe the current late cycle economic conditions – slower growth and stable inflation – coupled with central banks’ accommodative shift since the beginning of 2019, is creating a positive environment for inflation-linked bonds. In our view, beyond the recent

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A renewed spring in Europe’s step

A renewed spring in Europe’s step

🕔02:07, 30.apr 2019

Macro and Market Perspectives April 2019 We expect Europe to shake off its current soft patch later this year, getting a boost from China’s stimulus efforts and any resulting rebound in global manufacturing. If the global growth backdrop improves and

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EM Local Currency Debt — Potential Beneficiary of Lower Growth

EM Local Currency Debt — Potential Beneficiary of Lower Growth

🕔19:02, 29.apr 2019

Global economic growth is slowing. Emerging market (EM) central banks are also facing less inflationary pressure in 2019. Forecasters expect that, overall, EM central banks will cut rates or keep them unchanged (Figure 1). At the same time, the recent

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4 charts depicting climate risks to portfolios

4 charts depicting climate risks to portfolios

🕔16:27, 29.apr 2019

Brian shares four charts illustrating the potential impact from climate-related risks on U.S. municipal bonds, commercial mortgage backed securities and utility stocks. Increasing average global temperatures are boosting the frequency at which extreme weather events occur, as well as their

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Time to worry about trade wars coming to Europe?

Time to worry about trade wars coming to Europe?

🕔16:18, 29.apr 2019

Trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe may be heating up. Isabelle explains the potential impacts. We expect a recovery in Europe’s economy later in the year. But there’s a key risk to this base case of ours: Trade tensions

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The point of no returns

The point of no returns

🕔14:02, 29.apr 2019

 Yields on 10-year German Bunds have fallen to zero. What's the point of holding government bonds that literally seem to offer no returns?

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Market Flash: Hard-To-Interpret Data

Market Flash: Hard-To-Interpret Data

🕔14:02, 29.apr 2019

 There were no clear indications on market trends this week, a reflection of the difficulty investors are having in distinguishing between good and bad macro and company news. – Germany’s industrial PMI and IFO index remained weak, leading Berlin to

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Buying time to keep growth on track

Buying time to keep growth on track

🕔13:02, 29.apr 2019

Mario Draghi normally goes to great lengths to avoid surprising markets. But after the ECB’s March meeting, he shifted course. He adjusted forward guidance by saying key interest rates would remain at their present levels for longer than previously assumed

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Monthly Asset Allocation

Monthly Asset Allocation

🕔13:02, 29.apr 2019

In a nutshell After a strong performance in the first quarter of 2019, we are now further reducing risks and realize profits We reduce the overweight in US equities to "neutral", positioning ourselves more defensively Within the bond allocation, we

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7 year underweight consensus recommendation for Fixed Income

7 year underweight consensus recommendation for Fixed Income

🕔12:00, 29.apr 2019

The consensus recommendation for Fixed Income is underweight for almost 7 years! Just 3 out of the top 10 asset managers are overweight now! Read the Aegon Asset Management,  NN Investment Partners and JP Morgan reasons at www.opiniopro.com  

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A New Perspective on Geographical Diversification

A New Perspective on Geographical Diversification

🕔11:02, 29.apr 2019

Executive Summary Morningstar’s new Revenue Exposure by Region tool can lead to improved outcomes for investors by providing detailed insight into the global makeup of equity indexes and portfolios. Unlike traditional domicile-based classification, multinational companies no longer need to be

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Perspectives Global Equities – Q1 2019

Perspectives Global Equities – Q1 2019

🕔10:49, 29.apr 2019

Economy and markets The start of the year saw most major indices recover with double digit growth after a disappointing fourth quarter of 2018. Global equities rose 12.6% during the first quarter of 2019, as measured by the benchmark MSCI

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Week Ahead

Week Ahead

🕔04:03, 27.apr 2019

EZ: growth still under pressure  Next week (April 30), the first flash estimate of Eurozone GDP growth for 1Q19 will be released. Given the continued disappointing development of leading indicators in the Eurozone, GDP data will also be in focus

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Weekly Market Update: Modest Gain for Global Equities, U.S. Economy

🕔20:40, 26.apr 2019

Last Week Review Modest gain for global equities driven by the U.S. The U.S. economy grew 3.2% in first quarter. Global equities returned 0.4% last week with the U.S. as the only major equity region in positive territory. Following the modest

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Why a Fed Rate Cut (or 2) Makes SenseInvestors were worried about another rate hike. Now they’re expecting a cut.

🕔19:57, 26.apr 2019

Investors were worried about another rate hike. Now they’re expecting a cut. Financial market expectations in 2019 have pivoted from a potential Federal Reserve rate hike to a rate cut, alleviating what had been a significant risk for investors. If there

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Time for a breather?

Time for a breather?

🕔19:44, 26.apr 2019

Fundamentals The latest data releases have reaffirmed the picture of low inflation and muted growth. US core CPI came in below expectations at a lacklustre 2% year on year in March. Australian CPI fell significantly short of estimates, resulting in

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Investment Strategy Investment Highlights

Investment Strategy Investment Highlights

🕔15:02, 26.apr 2019

Handel, handel en nog eens handel De Amerikaanse president Trump heeft het gat in de handelsbalans van de Verenigde Staten tot één van de speerpunten van zijn beleid gemaakt. Alle economieën waarmee de Verenigde Staten een handelstekort heeft, zijn onder

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Zoek

Asset Allocation Consensus September

Twitter

The integration of #ESG criteria often has a greater impact for emerging countries. Find out why in an interview with our expert #Karine_Jesiolowski (via @allnews_ch).

Low interest rates drive housing market -> https://t.co/XjhuRim2P7 #Interest #mortgages via @ABNAMROeconomen

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