Income is back in bond returns

BlackRock
Door mei 29, 2019 18:41

Income is back in bond returns

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We see income, or carry, reasserting itself as the key driver of bond market returns. Scott explains.

Coupon income historically has contributed the lion’s share of total returns across global fixed income markets. Yet declining yields this year elevated the role of capital appreciation in generating returns. Price appreciation made up roughly three-quarters of U.S. Treasury returns in the first quarter, we estimate.

We see carry, or income, reasserting itself as the key driver of returns in bond markets in the quarters ahead, taking back the reins from price appreciation, as we write in our latest Fixed income strategy piece Carry is king. A patient Federal Reserve and a dovish tilt to monetary policy globally reinforce our view, as does a slowing, but still growing global economy.

Central banks, growth and inflation

We see rates in the U.S. on hold for the time being, as the Fed remains on pause.

BlackRock
Door mei 29, 2019 18:41

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