No more patience?

Door juni 27, 2019 15:00

No more patience?

Last month, we argued that it was all going to be about politics from now onwards. And indeed, May and June have not been short of unexpected political developments – and tweets. However, mixed economic data has also raised new questions on how the U.S. economy may evolve. We still expect no immediate recession, nor a sharp downturn, and stick to our view of a moderate cooling of economic activity. This is increasingly reflected in the data. Of course, the ultimate pace of convergence towards a lower growth path and the appropriate monetary policy continues to be dependent on political developments. Geopolitical tensions and the ongoing trade war adds plenty of uncertainty and, if mismanaged, could undermine the economic outlook. Markets appear to be already anticipating this, having priced in several interest-rate cuts in the next twelve months. But is this justified?

  • The U.S. Federal Reserve turned dovish in June's meeting, we now expect a first "insurance" rate cut in July.
  • While the economic outlook remains favorable for the time being, the anticipated fallout of trade-related uncertainty calls for some monetary support.
  • Inflation is expected to remain weak and labor markets are likely to remain near full employment.
Door juni 27, 2019 15:00


Asset Allocation Consensus Juli


  1. IPFOS – Bestuurders Conferentie 2019

    september 5 @ 14:00 - 18:00
  2. Invesco & Schroders – Real Assets & Energy Transition

    september 10 @ 09:30 - 13:00
  3. Candriam – Sustainbale Investment Conference

    september 12 @ 13:30 - 20:30
  4. ACTIAM – ACTIAM Academy

    september 17 @ 09:30 - 13:00
  5. Markets Group – 3rd Benelux Institutional Forum

    september 26 @ 07:30 - 18:00


Currencies: Us Dollar Bar For Us Fx Intervention Remains High -> #currency #China #tradewar via @PictetWM @PictetAM_NL

Long-term Equity Investments under Solvency II -> #solvency2 #equity #europeancommission via @DWS_Group

Blitzscale and Hope: Unicorns, IPOs and the Fear of Repeating the Late 1990s -> #unicorns #IPO via @epochinvest

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