No more patience?

DWS
Door juni 27, 2019 15:00

No more patience?

Last month, we argued that it was all going to be about politics from now onwards. And indeed, May and June have not been short of unexpected political developments – and tweets. However, mixed economic data has also raised new questions on how the U.S. economy may evolve. We still expect no immediate recession, nor a sharp downturn, and stick to our view of a moderate cooling of economic activity. This is increasingly reflected in the data. Of course, the ultimate pace of convergence towards a lower growth path and the appropriate monetary policy continues to be dependent on political developments. Geopolitical tensions and the ongoing trade war adds plenty of uncertainty and, if mismanaged, could undermine the economic outlook. Markets appear to be already anticipating this, having priced in several interest-rate cuts in the next twelve months. But is this justified?

  • The U.S. Federal Reserve turned dovish in June's meeting, we now expect a first "insurance" rate cut in July.
  • While the economic outlook remains favorable for the time being, the anticipated fallout of trade-related uncertainty calls for some monetary support.
  • Inflation is expected to remain weak and labor markets are likely to remain near full employment.
DWS
Door juni 27, 2019 15:00

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Asset Allocation Consensus September

Twitter

The integration of #ESG criteria often has a greater impact for emerging countries. Find out why in an interview with our expert #Karine_Jesiolowski (via @allnews_ch).

Low interest rates drive housing market -> https://t.co/XjhuRim2P7 #Interest #mortgages via @ABNAMROeconomen

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