EM Fixed Income

UBP
Door juni 13, 2019 11:02

EM Fixed Income

Our views for the coming months 

After a strong start of the year, with EM sovereign bonds up 7.6%, EM corporate bonds up 6.8% and EM local bonds up 3.0% in USD terms, we expect carry to be the primary driver of returns in the coming months, amidst drawn-out trade negotiations between US and China. The US Federal Reserve’s dovish comments, combined with a similar stance across many EM central banks, should support EM bonds despite a more uncertain global macro climate.

We have a neutral strategic bias on spread duration given lower growth forecasts for EM and more muted inflows into the asset class, after the large flows seen earlier in the year. We remain, however, open to tactical long opportunities given the recent value created in spreads (HY particularly). We also have a neutral strategic bias on interest duration following the recent rally.

We have a neutral bias on EM FX as currencies, in general, are caught between global trade tensions and the risk that, were those tensions to ease, US short end rates could rise, helping the USD.

UBP
Door juni 13, 2019 11:02

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