Likelihood of a 1.88% Fed Funds Rate by End of July Soars

OpinioPro Selection
Door juli 19, 2019 19:32

Likelihood of a 1.88% Fed Funds Rate by End of July Soars

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK

The release of second quarter corporate earnings is moving into full gear and investors are not entirely happy with the results. In addition to stumbling share prices, the latest jump in the implied probabilities of a lower than 2.13% federal funds rate reflect worry over whether business outlays on capital equipment and staff will be great enough to keep the U.S. safely distanced from recession. As inferred from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the fed funds futures market now implicitly assigns a 71% probability to a 50 basis points slashing of fed funds at the forthcoming July 31 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. In addition, the futures market also assigns a nearly 77% likelihood to fed funds ending the year no higher than 1.63%. 

OpinioPro Selection
Door juli 19, 2019 19:32

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