US-China trade tensions escalate

US-China trade tensions escalate

🕔19:51, 13.Aug 2019

On Thursday 1 August, US President Trump unexpectedly announced a plan to move forward with an additional 10% tariff on USD300bn worth of imported Chinese goods. The move is in addition to the USD250bn of Chinese products already subject to

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Global Asset Classes in the Spotlight

Global Asset Classes in the Spotlight

🕔18:47, 13.Aug 2019

A widening gap between valuation and economic/corporate fundamentals Central banks seems to be very concerned about the slowdown in the economic cycle sparked by trade tensions. As a consequence, they have been intensifying their communications about their willingness to act.

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Investment directions – Autumn breezes: Change in seasons and markets

Investment directions – Autumn breezes: Change in seasons and markets

🕔17:43, 13.Aug 2019

The return of fall offers cooler temperatures—but a shifting market environment. Dovish central bank policies may extend the long economic expansion, but against a backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions and trade disputes contributing to slower growth. Investors are responding by

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Easing cycle underway

Easing cycle underway

🕔16:46, 13.Aug 2019

An Asian central bank policy outlook Historically there has been a general co-movement between Asian central banks and the US Federal Reserve (Fed), albeit that there is heterogeneity between banks’ reaction functions. Past episodes suggest the magnitude and duration of

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Asset Class Return Forecasts

Asset Class Return Forecasts

🕔16:37, 13.Aug 2019

Medium and Long-Term Return Forecasts | Q3 – 2019 Our medium-term baseline scenario is that of a late business cycle slowdown supported by the dovish U-turn of central banks. We expect economic growth to evolve around potential for most developed

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Hedging US-China Trade Risk with Bitcoin

Hedging US-China Trade Risk with Bitcoin

🕔15:33, 13.Aug 2019

Financial crises are becoming more common and global. The below chart from Goldman Sachs identifies a long list of large drawdowns across US, European, and Asian equity markets over the last sixty years, showing just how devastating their effects can

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Is this tariff different? Weighing the effect of trade escalation on recession risk

Is this tariff different? Weighing the effect of trade escalation on recession risk

🕔14:28, 13.Aug 2019

The plunge in U.S. Treasury yields, down 35 basis points over the past two weeks, indicates growing investor unease about the resilience of the economy to seemingly unrelenting policy shocks. Those concerns are not irrational. Although we have argued on

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Market Flash: The Outlook Remains Uncertain

Market Flash: The Outlook Remains Uncertain

🕔14:08, 13.Aug 2019

Markets struggled to regain their calm although the risk of Chinese currency manipulation abated. Fundamental worries over an economic slowdown -with its litany of negative interest rates and yield curve inversion – returned to haunt investors. Second quarter results were

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US-China trade war: walking a tightrope

US-China trade war: walking a tightrope

🕔13:04, 13.Aug 2019

Recent escalation: Donald Trump proposed additional 10% tariffs on a further US$300 billion worth of Chinese imports from 1 September. This is surprising, given that the two countries appeared to have found some common ground at the G20 meeting in

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Charting China Monthly Review

Charting China Monthly Review

🕔12:08, 13.Aug 2019

What happened in the past month? High frequency data points to retreat in both IP and retail sales growth in July. Property and land markets soften. July IPP coal consumption growth declined to -16% YoY from -10% YoY in June.

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Role of cross currency swap markets in funding and investment decisions

Role of cross currency swap markets in funding and investment decisions

🕔12:00, 13.Aug 2019

A US dollar funding premium in the EUR/USD cross currency swap market has been in existence since 2008. Whilst there are many reasons behind this dislocation, since 2014 the divergence in monetary policy between the euro area and the United

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Weekly Economic Commentary

Weekly Economic Commentary

🕔10:54, 13.Aug 2019

The U.S./China Trade Conflict. On this front, we have been assuming provocation would eventually give way to negotiation. The issues between the two countries are numerous and complicated, but we have been assuming that economic and political forces would lead

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CEE Market Insights Fixed Income and Foreign Exchange

CEE Market Insights Fixed Income and Foreign Exchange

🕔09:50, 13.Aug 2019

The moment of truth could come this week, as 2Q19 GDP releases could indicate how much the German manufacturing slowdown plagued CEE growth. This could easily have implications for regional currencies and rates, too. Last week’s positive performance of the

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Eliminating that Factor Home Bias

Eliminating that Factor Home Bias

🕔09:07, 13.Aug 2019

Investors are seeking to capture the historical benefits of factors within their U.S. allocations so why not internationally? Investors have flocked to single factor ETFs with $90 BN in flows over the past 10 years. However, when dissecting these flows

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Brexit scenarios

Brexit scenarios

🕔08:45, 13.Aug 2019

The Brexit process drags on; a “no-deal” exit looks increasingly likely and UK financial markets are unlikely to welcome that. Nothing is certain, so we present three scenarios but fear the worst. In a sign of investor anxiety, sterling and

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