How to navigate escalating trade disputes

How to navigate escalating trade disputes

🕔19:28, 14.Aug 2019

The recent escalation in U.S.-China tensions reinforces our view that trade and geopolitical frictions have become the key driver of the global economy and markets. We stress the importance of portfolio resilience in this environment, yet view the decisively dovish

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Gold: Near term correction risk

Gold: Near term correction risk

🕔19:08, 14.Aug 2019

Gold prices have rallied by 17% this year. On 21 June our year-end forecast of USD 1,400 per ounce was reached and on 5 August our year-end 2020 forecast of USD 1,500 was also reached. We had expected higher gold

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The Fiscal Roots of Inflation

The Fiscal Roots of Inflation

🕔18:04, 14.Aug 2019

Unexpected inflation devalues nominal government bonds. It must therefore correspond to a decline in expected future surpluses, or a rise in their discount rates, so that the real value of debt equals the present value of surpluses. I measure each

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Trade concerns continue pressuring Treasury yields lower

Trade concerns continue pressuring Treasury yields lower

🕔17:01, 14.Aug 2019

U.S. Treasury yields declined again last week, with the yield difference between the 3-month T-bill and the 10-year Treasury note inverted further. Market expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut at the September meeting are high. However, the magnitude

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Investment Monthly August 2019

Investment Monthly August 2019

🕔15:56, 14.Aug 2019

Fed cuts rates  A lack of inflation pressure allows the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to lean against the increased downside risks to growth. While market pricing may prove to be too aggressive, some “insurance” policy easing is very likely The

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Investing for the Middle Run

Investing for the Middle Run

🕔14:50, 14.Aug 2019

I have always been a middle-distance runner, a fact for which I must credit the Dublin bus service of my school days. Dublin was supposed to be a bus-friendly city and the main roads all had bus stops every quarter

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Trade War Fears May Be Strong, but Fundamentals Are Stronger

Trade War Fears May Be Strong, but Fundamentals Are Stronger

🕔13:46, 14.Aug 2019

In volatile times like these – trade war fears or not – we believe global equity investors should stay focused on the fundamentals. The combined economic outlook for the world’s two largest economies, the US and China, is much improved

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Global Allocation Monthly Insight

Global Allocation Monthly Insight

🕔12:41, 14.Aug 2019

Rising market volatility has investors looking to protect their stock market gains. When thinking about portfolio protection, it’s important to consider the current market conditions because different hedges tend to be more effective in different regimes. For example, when economic

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Currencies, curves and cuts… Markets at a glance

Currencies, curves and cuts… Markets at a glance

🕔11:36, 14.Aug 2019

Core government bond yields continued their lurch lower as volatility remained elevated, driven by further escalation in trade rhetoric and the unexpected re-fixing of the Chinese yuan fix to above 7. This retaliatory action led the US Treasury to formerly

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The Fed’s About-Face Complete Amid Dissent

The Fed’s About-Face Complete Amid Dissent

🕔11:25, 14.Aug 2019

As Federal Reserve officials have been signaling in recent weeks, the Fed cut its target Fed funds rate by 25 bps to a target range of 2.0%-2.25% at the policy meeting that ended on July 31, marking its first interest

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Macrocast – How to feed your dragon

Macrocast – How to feed your dragon

🕔10:32, 14.Aug 2019

Sometimes monetary policy is akin to feeding dragons: markets tend to be insatiable, and they may end up burning you. Indeed, there seems to be no end to what the market wants from central banks. We have seen it in

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3Q 2019 Investment Outlook

3Q 2019 Investment Outlook

🕔10:08, 14.Aug 2019

At the beginning of the second quarter, market sentiments were positive amid China and U.S. were en route to reach a trade agreement, U.S. central bank stopped raising interest rates and planned to end balance sheet reduction in the year,

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Strategies that benefit from volatility

Strategies that benefit from volatility

🕔08:48, 14.Aug 2019

With fresh memories of 2018’s market correction, and valuations looking stretched, Asian investors are looking for sophisticated strategies fit for all market conditions. Financial markets have proved unpredictable so far in 2019. While the fog of US/China trade frictions have

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Fed cuts rates

Fed cuts rates

🕔08:03, 14.Aug 2019

The Federal Reserve reduces interest rates At its July meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut the target range for the fed funds rate to 2.00-2.25%, in line with market expectations. Two FOMC

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