Inverted Yield Curves and Expected Stock Returns

Inverted Yield Curves and Expected Stock Returns

🕔17:55, 16.aug 2019

Yield curves typically slope up, with long maturity government bonds promising higher returns than short maturity bonds. Much empirical evidence says the slope of the yield curve predicts economic activity (e.g., Harvey 1988, Estrella and Hardouvelis 1989, Fama and French

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Draghi determined to lift inflation — but how?

Draghi determined to lift inflation — but how?

🕔17:47, 16.aug 2019

With 2 ½ months left until Mario Draghi steps down as ECB chief, what will be his legacy? On the one hand, he will be forever remembered for those three words “whatever it takes”, which many people credit for having

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Germany heading for recession

Germany heading for recession

🕔17:45, 16.aug 2019

Germany’s GDP contracted by 0.1% qoq in 2019Q2, down from +0.4% in Q1. No further details have been published yet, but we refer to the press release of the Statistisches Bundesamt for visibility. GDP growth was weighed down by the

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Monthly Market Update | August 2019

Monthly Market Update | August 2019

🕔17:42, 16.aug 2019

The Federal Reserve lowered its target policy rate for the first time in over a decade, ending one of the longest hiking cycles in the past 30 years. While the cumulative increase in the federal funds rate of 225 basis

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The Anatomy of Bear Market Drawdowns

The Anatomy of Bear Market Drawdowns

🕔17:42, 16.aug 2019

The significance of asset class diversification for investors As we experience the longest bull market in stock market history, considerations of what may come next pervade investor's consciousness.1 Thoughts of previous bear markets — the circumstances behind their evolution and

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Investing in China: Silk (Road) Purse or Sow’s Ear?

Investing in China: Silk (Road) Purse or Sow’s Ear?

🕔17:38, 16.aug 2019

TIFF Insights An Interview with Scott Malpass and Jay Willoughby Introduction In the recent past, American investors’ views on China have rotated from unblemished enthusiasm to substantial caution. From the radical reforms of Deng Xiaoping in 1978 until quite recently,

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The Road Back to the 70s Implications for Investors

The Road Back to the 70s Implications for Investors

🕔17:38, 16.aug 2019

History shows that the economy and fi nancial markets are dominated by long-term regimes that at some point come to a break point, where one regime gives way to a new one. This shift may not be easy to detect.

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How to Overcome the Structural Bias in Cash and Short-Term Investing

How to Overcome the Structural Bias in Cash and Short-Term Investing

🕔17:37, 16.aug 2019

Behavioral scientists are skilled at analyzing why we make mistakes, and financial and investment decisions have been a ripe field to till. The challenge lies in overcoming our biases that result in poor decisions, particularly in today’s late economic cycle

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On recent market volatility

On recent market volatility

🕔17:34, 16.aug 2019

Financial market volatility has risen in August. This has come amid the ongoing US-China trade conflict (along with other geopolitical risks), and some weak economic data releases. Risk assets such as equities have sold off, while safe-haven assets have rallied

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Think U.S. Cities, Trends and tactics Q3 2019 outlook

Think U.S. Cities, Trends and tactics Q3 2019 outlook

🕔17:28, 16.aug 2019

The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.1% during Q1 2019 and is on track to grow around 2.9% in Q2 2019.1 We expect GDP growth to slow in the 2nd half of 2019 as the effects of

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Treasury Bond Return Data Starting in 1962

Treasury Bond Return Data Starting in 1962

🕔17:25, 16.aug 2019

Abstract: Academics and research analysts in financial economics frequently use returns on government bonds for their empirical analyses. In the United States, government bonds are also called Treasury bonds. The Federal Reserve publishes the yield-to-maturity of Treasury bonds. However, the

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Emerging Market Debt Indicator

Emerging Market Debt Indicator

🕔17:25, 16.aug 2019

Emerging market bonds shrugged off recent trade warrelated concerns to strengthen in June. Local currency bonds, measured by the JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Index, returned 5.5% during the month, outperforming hard currency bonds, measured by the JPMorgan EMBI index,

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Share Buybacks: A Brief Investigation

Share Buybacks: A Brief Investigation

🕔17:19, 16.aug 2019

Corporate stock buybacks in the US have grown in frequency and size over the past decades (see Figure 1 on the next page), leading to a host of concerns from market commentators. Among the most frequent concerns are that share

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Why is income from fixed income harder to come by?

Why is income from fixed income harder to come by?

🕔17:00, 16.aug 2019

Historically, fixed income investors have been able to generate a healthy income stream from high quality bonds. However, given the current environment of ultra-low yields, income has been harder and harder to come by. With the Fed poised to cut

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Does the yield curve inversion signal trouble ahead?

Does the yield curve inversion signal trouble ahead?

🕔15:54, 16.aug 2019

Earlier this week, a closely-watched economic indicator, the difference in yield between the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond and the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond (2s10s), inverted. This inversion, however brief, was further evidence of investor concern over the current state of

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How should I invest in choppy markets?

How should I invest in choppy markets?

🕔14:51, 16.aug 2019

Last week saw both stock and bond markets swing wildly due to questions around the future path of Fed policy, an unexpected depreciation in the Chinese renminbi, and uncertainty around trade. While manufacturing remains weak given the lack of clarity

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Why USD corporate bonds are set to attract international investors

Why USD corporate bonds are set to attract international investors

🕔13:46, 16.aug 2019

It is all relative in the global capital markets. Over the last year or so, the high currency-hedging cost has made US dollar corporate bonds less attractive for international investors despite the relatively high level of US yields. This is

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Mounting Political Risksin Emerging Markets

Mounting Political Risksin Emerging Markets

🕔11:36, 16.aug 2019

In addition to renewed trade tensions between the US and China, political tensions, especially in Asia, have risen – China vs. Hong Kong, Japan vs. South Korea, India vs. Kashmir – triggering a rise in risk aversion for emerging assets.

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Are European Energy Companies Sustainable Investments?

Are European Energy Companies Sustainable Investments?

🕔10:31, 16.aug 2019

Oil and gas producers are oen seen as vulnerable to global efforts aimed at curbing climate change. But some European energy groups might become part of the solution to climate change rather than part of the problem. 

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The renminbi conundrum: the external surplus and the exchange rate

The renminbi conundrum: the external surplus and the exchange rate

🕔09:26, 16.aug 2019

China’s current account has defied consensus (https://china.bnpparibas­am.com/the­fuss­aboutchinas­current­account­deficit­and­global­cost­of­capital/) , and recorded a surplus of 1.6% of GDP in Q2 2019, up from a 1.5% surplus in Q1. How can that be? The answer must lie in the financial and capital accounts,

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Twitter

Learn why PM Mike Della Vedova says the diversification benefits of a global high yield portfolio may involve less risk than a more traditional, U.S.-focused high yield strategy. https://t.co/g8dneU9G6N

Bob Homan of @INGnl_IO, keynote speaker at the @AlphaResearchNL conference #LowerforLonger last week: “Analysts are often too enthusiastic. They should lower their expectations.” #2020outlook

Our conference #UBPInvestmentOutlook had a full house in London last week! Our experts shared their 2020 outlook for the global economy and more specifically for the UK. Thank you all for coming!

Zal zijn laatste woorden aan mij nooit vergeten. Over woorden gesproken: toen ik Volcker de eerste keer ontmoette, was zijn eerste vraag:"Hoe is het met Andre Szász?" Ik had 15 minuten met hem. Het werd 1,5 uur! Er was een klik. RIP

De Asset Allocatie Awards komen er weer aan! Nominaties komen deze week, winnaars op 4 februari 2020... Hier een sfeer inpressie van vorig jaar -> https://t.co/c36HWpyGVx

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