We do not view the inversion of the yield curve as a recessionary signal

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The “risk-off” mood in global markets deepened last week – as global government bond yields plunged to historical lows and the inversion of part of the U.S. Treasury curve sparked recession fears. Perceived safe-haven assets such as gold rallied. We still see limited near-term recession risks as central banks’ dovish pivot helps stretch the economic cycle, yet caution that trade and geopolitical tensions pose downside risks.