Brexit scenarios

Invesco
Door augustus 13, 2019 08:45

Brexit scenarios

The Brexit process drags on; a “no-deal” exit looks increasingly likely and UK financial markets are unlikely to welcome that. Nothing is certain, so we present three scenarios but fear the worst. In a sign of investor anxiety, sterling and gilt yields have fallen toward multi-decade lows, given the rising likelihood of a no-deal Brexit, a risk seemingly elevated by the selection of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister (see Figure 1). The UK’s new Prime Minister has set out three priorities, which we think will impact growth and financial risk premia: deliver Brexit by 31st October; pressure the EU to give ground on the Northern Ireland backstop and prepare for no-deal, to persuade the EU that he is serious and in case no agreement is reached. 

Invesco
Door augustus 13, 2019 08:45

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