Is this tariff different? Weighing the effect of trade escalation on recession risk

JP Morgan
Door augustus 13, 2019 14:28

Is this tariff different? Weighing the effect of trade escalation on recession risk

The plunge in U.S. Treasury yields, down 35 basis points over the past two weeks, indicates growing investor unease about the resilience of the economy to seemingly unrelenting policy shocks. Those concerns are not irrational. Although we have argued on several prior occasions that episodes of significant market volatility and their associated spikes in recession pricing were overdone, the case for recession risk being low is becoming less clear cut. While recent U.S. dataflow has been generally sound, and we do not see evidence of grave economic imbalances, ratchets in U.S. tariff rates are increasingly impactful at a time when corporate confidence may be more prone to a cautious turn. In this report, we discuss the key components of our view on recession risk and how it factors into the more guarded positioning in our multi-asset portfolios. 

JP Morgan
Door augustus 13, 2019 14:28

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