EM Fixed Income

UBP
Door augustus 5, 2019 13:07

EM Fixed Income

Current Strategy | August 2019  

We see a range trading environment for EM, supported by Fed monetary easing and likely easing by other major developed and EM central banks. This should offset President Trump’s latest threat to impose new tariffs on China to push trade negotiations forward.

We have a neutral strategic bias on spread duration as valuations across sovereign and corporate hard currency are fair. We are open to adding to spread duration on setbacks, particularly in the HY part of the credit market. We also have a neutral strategic bias on interest duration, albeit looking for tactical short duration opportunities given the amount of protracted Fed rate cuts already priced in and some tentative signs of growth stabilising in the US.

We have a neutral bias on EM FX as currencies. A weaker global growth environment and generalised rate cuts will make it hard for now to have generalized dollar weakness/EM FX appreciation. But we are comfortable in being long selected pockets of FX carry especially where we have high confidence in low spot FX volatility. Nigerian Naira and Uruguayan peso continue to fit this description.

UBP
Door augustus 5, 2019 13:07

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