Caution or precaution? Fixed income outlook for the second half of 2019

Caution or precaution? Fixed income outlook for the second half of 2019

🕔17:38, 18.Sep 2019

Bond market performance in 2019 has been dominated by a theme of central banks pivoting towards easier policy. In particular, the US Federal Reserve has signalled potential interest rate cuts, marking a meaningful shift compared with the hiking cycle of

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Is the eurozone headed for two decades of Japanstyle slow growth?

Is the eurozone headed for two decades of Japanstyle slow growth?

🕔16:35, 18.Sep 2019

Despite it being more than 10 years since the global financial crisis (GFC), the world remains heavily indebted and there is no realistic prospect of that debt reducing in the short or medium term. Barring glaring historical exceptions (such as

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Fortress America

Fortress America

🕔15:28, 18.Sep 2019

The US economy, currency and equity markets are notably robust due to structural inheritance factors as well as the unique way its economic institutions and boardrooms are run. GAM Investments’ Julian Howard examines how these advantages allow the US to

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This Month’s Topic Trade War Escalation And Impact On World Trade And Economic Growth

This Month’s Topic Trade War Escalation And Impact On World Trade And Economic Growth

🕔15:10, 18.Sep 2019

The summer months have been eventful. On the (geo)-political level, the sources of tension have multiplied globally. On the economic front, the growth momentum has weakened further, confirming the downward trend observed worldwide since April, with the deepening of the

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Vragen en meningen over Goud – deel II

Vragen en meningen over Goud – deel II

🕔14:26, 18.Sep 2019

Na rally staat Goud op hoogste koers in zes jaar tijd Sinds de opmars vanaf augustus vorig jaar bereikte Goud na de “doorbraak” van USD 1400 de hoogste koers in zes jaar tijd. Alhoewel wij bij OpinioPro niet al te

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Stock price cycles and business cycles

Stock price cycles and business cycles

🕔14:05, 18.Sep 2019

We present a simple model that quantitatively replicates the behavior of stock prices and business cycles in the United States. The business cycle model is standard, except that it features extrapolative belief formation in the stock market, in line with

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Is gold the place to hide from negative yields?

Is gold the place to hide from negative yields?

🕔13:00, 18.Sep 2019

In this chart of the month the multi-asset team asks whether gold could once again become the main hedge of choice as negatively yielding debt becomes increasingly common.

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ECB zet de geldkraan open

ECB zet de geldkraan open

🕔11:54, 18.Sep 2019

Alle ogen waren afgelopen week gericht op de vergadering van de ECB. ECB-voorzitter Mario Draghi stelde niet teleur met de aankondiging van een hele reeks aan verruimende maatregelen. Conform verwachting werd de depositorente verder verlaagd. Ook werd het opnieuw opstarten

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Lower growth, higher inflation

Lower growth, higher inflation

🕔10:50, 18.Sep 2019

Markets breathed a sigh of relief last week on signs of easing U.S.-China trade tensions. We see ongoing policy support, the absence of obvious financial system vulnerabilities and resilient consumer spending helping extend the U.S. economic expansion. Yet trade tensions

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Don’t Forget this Important Fact about the Yield Curve

Don’t Forget this Important Fact about the Yield Curve

🕔09:46, 18.Sep 2019

The yield curve regained the limelight in August when yields on ten-year Treasury notes dipped below yields on two-year notes, the dreaded “inversion” that caused markets to sell off. Remember, an inverted yield curve represents fear of a recession; it

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Still in love with equities?

Still in love with equities?

🕔08:40, 18.Sep 2019

There may be few alternatives to equities. However, that is no longer a sufficient reason to buy into every dip. Despite some warning signs, it is probably too early to give up on equities, especially if and when leading economic

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Cycling into Emerging Market Sovereigns

Cycling into Emerging Market Sovereigns

🕔07:36, 18.Sep 2019

Bond yields have nose-dived once more this summer in light of renewed geopolitical tensions and a decelerating global economy. GAM Investments’ Bogdan Manescu believes that fixed income investors can still find value and attractive yields in emerging market (EM) sovereign,

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Where is U.S. economy headed?

Where is U.S. economy headed?

🕔07:24, 18.Sep 2019

Elga explains why we could see lower growth and higher inflation ahead in the U.S. Hint: trade tensions. Signs of easing U.S.-China tensions have helped calm recessionary fears that gripped markets in recent weeks. We see little risk of an

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