China: farewell to the large current account surplus

AXA
Door september 9, 2019 08:26

China: farewell to the large current account surplus

Disappearing structural current-account surplus is an inevitable trait of China’s economic and social transformation

A steady, but definite, shift in China’s balance of payments (BoP) suggests that a fundamental change is underway in China’s relationship with the outside world (Exhibit 1). As a country of a large current account (CA) surplus – which peaked at almost 11% of GDP – China was a formidable competitor in global trade. But with its capital account (KA) closed, this surplus had to be recycled into liquid US Treasury bonds via an unprecedented build-up of official reserves. This contributed to what former US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke called the “global saving glut” 1 , which placed significant downward pressure on the US, and global, interest rates.

AXA
Door september 9, 2019 08:26

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