Germany may well already be in recession

AXA
Door september 11, 2019 11:45

Germany may well already be in recession

German Industrial production (IP) fell again in July. If IP stabilises over the rest of the summer, over the third quarter (Q3) the quarterly decline would reach 1.6%, only marginally less bad than in Q2 (-1.9%). This makes the Bundesbank’s warning of a mid-year technical recession even more credible (GDP fell already in Q2). This confirmed the earlier – and just as bleak – message from the factory orders earlier in the week. A lot of the comments emerging right after the release focused on the fact that the biggest negative contribution came from foreign clients outside the Euro area. This is intuitive: in a configuration of trade war between the US and China, one would expect demand weakness to come from non-European clients. 

AXA
Door september 11, 2019 11:45

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