Dividend investing in Eurozone equity markets Equities are currently a rare liquid asset class in the euro area with yields on aggregate close to 3.1%. Current levels are close to their five-decade average, last observed in 2016 (Exhibit 1). This
Recent developments and next steps: Following the three-month extension granted to the UK by the EU on 28 October and the newly announced snap election, the most likely outcome is that the Withdrawal Agreement signed on 17 October between the
Addressing climate change is not only going to transform the global economy, it’s going to divert trillions of dollars of investment every year. So, what does this mean for investors? The 2015 Paris Agreement was a milestone in the battle
Profits outlook poses a challenge for US equities The next crisis? Fiscal policy: lessons from Japan
30 October 2019 Today’s rate cut to 1.75% by the Federal Open Market Committee has been a foregone conclusion. A still-uncertain global environment mixed in with sluggish readings from ination indicators and the manufacturing sector seemed enough for another “midcycle
The opportunity is even greater than we had previously assumed During 2019 Wealth-X completed a significant expansion to its dataset on the wealthy in China. We identified nearly 270,000 wealthy Chinese individuals, growing our total dataset by more than 22%
As the Threadneedle Global Multi Asset Income Fund chalks up five years, we are proud of its continuing success in delivering a sustainable yield with capital growth over the longer term Back in March 2014 the then chancellor George Osborne
Fixed Income Perspectives News of negative rates in the U.S., recessionary fears, and U.S.-China trade negotiations continue to grab headlines. However, on the stage of doom and gloom, one actor is noticeably absent: Unsustainable leverage on corporate balance sheets. It
Q3 '19 Netherlands fund selector asset class sentiments This report shows the forward-looking investment intentions of fund selectors, asset allocators and portfolio constructors in the Netherlands. In all graphs below, the y-axes (typically marked ‘net buyers’) shows the % of
Preferred Sectors: Health Care, Technology and Consumer
Q4 2019 | Fixed Income Outlook Global growth has cooled in 2019 as trade conflicts have taken a toll on international manufacturing, investments, and financial markets. Despite multiple headwinds, the likelihood of a recession — while rising — remains relatively
Who controls our money? The developed world depends on money in one form or another. We pay bills, put food on the table, and add to the quality of our life with it. But how well does the average person
EU agrees to extend Brexit deadline The European Union (EU) has agreed in principle to extend Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. This delays the UK’s scheduled departure from the European Union (EU) that was due to occur on 31
A tug of war between weaker growth and looser policies Emerging economies have faced a backlash in the last few months as a consequence of the global economic weakness and the uncertainty related to global trade. This weighed on the
US share buybacks are near record levels in absolute dollar terms and incrementally the discussion has shifted from academic finance journals to political stump speeches. Given the impact of the 2018 tax cuts and the upcoming 2020 US Presidential election
Investors are increasingly considering the environmental, social and governance (ESG) properties of their portfolios, say John Seo and Joanna Syroka of Fermat Capital Management. They believe insurance-linked securities (ILS) are aligned with positive ESG attributes which could help protect and
US share buybacks are near record levels in absolute dollar terms and incrementally the discussion has shifted from academic finance journals to political stump speeches. Given the impact of the 2018 tax cuts and the upcoming 2020 US Presidential election
Political upheavals, economic deterioration, and commodity-price turmoil. Investors used to perceive these idiosyncratic risks as a hallmark of investing in emerging markets (EM) debt. But emerging markets have come a long way since then. In aggregate, these countries are now
Eurozone business confidence stabilised in October according to preliminary data. The Markit PMI for manufacturing was unchanged at 45.7. Still nothing to write home about, of course, but it could have been worse. PMI data have not been released for
Growth momentum decelerated more notably in 3Q. The rebound in IP & consumption growth in September from the rapid decline in July-August may not sustain. Although September TSF and M2 growth exceeded market expectation, the rebound may have largely been
The emerging-markets debt sector is up sharply for the year, despite a weaker third quarter. With the rally cooling, all EM factors – exchange rates, local-currency interest rates, sovereign and corporate spreads – appear to offer value. Spillover effects in
Mario Draghi's last press conference as president of the ECB focused on general questions relating to his term of office. There was nothing new on monetary policy. Draghi pointed out that the decisions on an extensive monetary easing through various
EM debt has rallied amid a perceived easing of trade tensions. Scott explains the investing implications. One beneficiary of a perceived easing in the U.S.-China trade conflict: EM debt, which has rallied recently and outperformed developed market peers. We see
The US Fed’s FOMC will meet next week to decide on interest rates. Due to Brexit, which will probably not have been resolved by then, and the uncertainties that are associated with it, we expect a further rate cut, which
When defensive equity positions become more appealing, stocks that exhibit lower-risk attributes, including low beta stocks and stocks in traditionally defensive sectors, can become expensive. Risk measures are not sufficient to construct a defensive portfolio; valuation is also important, as
IN THIS PAPER: The CMBX.6 has become such a popular short by speculators placing bets on mall closings that it has been profiled in the media as the next “big short.” It’s true that as many as a third of
Nonfinancial performance measures, such as environmental, social, and governance (ESG) measures, are potentially leading indicators of companies’ financial performance. In the study reported here, I drew on prior academic literature and the concept of ESG materiality to develop new corporate
Het Britse House of Commons heeft het ontwerp voor het vertrekakkoord goedgekeurd, maar verwierp het versneldetijdschema. Het lijkterop dateerste minister Boris Johnson veel verder staat dan Theresa May ooit is geraakt. DeAmerikaanseen Chinesetopambtenaren voor de handel hebben elkaar ontmoet om
In light of the persistent low growth, muted inflation, additional central bank stimulus and sharply decreased interest rates, we revised our long-term global outlook for economic growth, interest rates and equity returns downwards. As a result, in our scenarios it
One beneficiary of a perceived easing in the U.S.-China trade conflict: EM debt, which has rallied recently and outperformed developed market peers. We see factors further supporting EM debt from here: a likely Fed rate cut this week and the
Brexit commotion dominated market sentiment after the agreement reached by Boris Johnson failed to go to a vote in the Commons over the last weekend. The UK prime minister eventually got a majority for his text but accelerated adoption was
How the path of inflation will impact fixed income markets Global growth is approaching an inflection point; either the slowdown becomes entrenched and leads to a recession, or the cycle gets extended as interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus start
Jeff unpacks what the markets are saying about a growth slowdown, and why investors should take a closer look at their bond allocations. Three quarters into 2019, stock and bond performance seems to be telling a story of relative calm.
Presentation
Strong fundamentals and powerful tailwinds make this growing asset class one to watch for global investors. Asset class offers an increasingly significant opportunity set, growing to nearly USD $1 trillion in issuance as a vast regional investor base absorbs new
U.S. stocks have outperformed non-U.S. markets for the last decade, resulting in extended valuations for U.S. companies at a time when earnings are near a cyclical peak. This recent outperformance of U.S. equities and their current valuation premia are anomalous
Outlook Presentation
In any market system, prices contain information. The problem is, it’s not always easy to figure out what that information is. When frost blankets Florida’s orange groves in winter, it is clear why the price of orange juice goes up
Risk is a thorny word. In its simplest form, it means exposure to danger, but in an organizational or business context, it takes on a much more complex definition.
Risk is a thorny word. In its simplest form, it means exposure to danger, but in an organizational or business context, it takes on a much more complex definition.
Structured credit has gone through a significant evolution over the past 10-years to emerge as a stable, well-regulated and, in our view, attractively priced asset class. With a more defensive profile than corporate credit, combined with compelling premiums, the asset
What a good run markets are having! And why not? The labor markets in the U.S. and parts of Europe are extremely strong. So are corporate earnings, at least for now. Companies have solid balance sheets. Loan defaults remain rare.
As we start the final quarter of 2019, volatility has increased relative to the first half of the year, equity markets remain strong year-to-date, and a bid for safe-haven assets has been maintained. Monetary policy has undergone a dramatic shift
Light electric vehicles A wide range of light electric vehicles, such as electric bicycles, segways and electric scooters, have recently taken over some European cities. They can bring great benefits, such as being more affordable and usually more eco-friendly than
It is our view that the potentially negative impacts of an unruly departure from the EU are likely to be felt more acutely by the economy itself rather than credit markets As we approach 31 October and the UK’s deadline
U.S. assets performed well in the third quarter, adding to strong gains from the first half of the year. Markets rallied as heightened concerns about global trade and growth pushed bond yields lower and prompted central banks to ease policy.
Emerging market debt is underpinned by a solid fundamental backdrop, but the local index is at all-time tights. A differentiated approach seems warranted.
Working out how much to invest and when to do so is something investors often agonise about just as much as where to put their money. Should you invest a lump sum and hope you’ve timed it right, or drip-feed
It’s been a largely solid run for U.S. stocks in 2019. With the year now in its final quarter, Tony DeSpirito addresses three questions on investors’ minds. For the most part, it’s been a good year for U.S. equities. We’ve
U.S.-China trade tensions appeared to have eased and the risk of a no-deal Brexit has diminished. Can we take a break from focusing on the impact of geopolitical risks on the economy and markets? Not yet. We in fact expect
